What happened? The drop of Ukraine's GDP in 2022 may reach 33-35%.
Source. Serhiy Marchenko, the Minister of Finance, at a briefing, Interfax-Ukraine reports.
Details. According to him, in absolute terms, this is more than 1 trillion UAH.
As reported, after a better-than-expected third quarter, the Ministry of Economy spoke about the possibility of improving the forecast for a fall in GDP in 2022 from 33.2% to about 30%. However, at the end of October, while finalising the draft state budget for the second reading, this figure was improved only to 32%.
“Given the recent estimate of GDP by the State Statistics Service (a drop in real GDP in the first quarter by 15.1%, in the second – by 37.2%) and the estimate of GDP decline by 35% in the third quarter and by 37% in the fourth quarter, the annual forecast for a fall in real GDP in 2022 was adjusted to 32%,” the government noted in an explanatory note.
In addition, the GDP growth forecast for 2023 was downgraded from 4.6% to 3.2%.
In mid-October, the National Bank of Ukraine improved its estimate of the economic downturn this year from 33.4 to 31.5%, but at the same time downgraded its forecast for GDP growth next year from 5.5 to 4%.
First Deputy Prime Minister and Economy Minister Yulia Svyrydenko said last week that russian attacks on critical infrastructure in October had worsened the GDP decline to 39% compared to October 2021, which is lower than rates in September-August – 35%.
“Following the results of nine months, we estimate the GDP decline at about 30%. However, in the event of continued attacks, and, consequently, outages, GDP may drop lower,” the press service of the ministry quoted her as saying.
Previously. The Ministry of Economy predicted that the fall in Ukraine's GDP could reach almost 40% in 2022 due to prolonged power outages.