Long-range aircraft of the Russian Air Force have not struck Ukraine since September 21, 2023, or for 21 days, British military intelligence writes.
This is not unusual, as the last break lasted 51 days from March 9 to April 28, 2023. Then, according to British intelligence, Russia almost exhausted its stockpile of X-101 (AS-23 according to NATO classification) missiles after a winter campaign during which it attacked Ukraine's critical infrastructure.
This time, the Russian air force is likely to use the pause to stockpile ammunition and prepare for more strikes against Ukraine in the winter, the report's authors say.
Recently, Russia attacked grain storage facilities in southern Ukraine using unmanned "chessmen". The Russians have been striking Ukrainian ports on the Danube River, which requires high precision due to the proximity of the targets to the Romanian border.
It is likely that the Russian army is using the Shahids because of their greater accuracy compared to air-launched missiles, the report said.
Background. As a reminder, the UK will provide Ukraine with the Terrahawk Paladin air defense system, the best solution for shooting down Shaheds.