Pursuant to 12 days of a full-scale warfare Russia started against Ukraine, we can make a pretty objective conclusion about its root causes, actions of both sides of a conflict and the nearest consequences.
It is worth being mentioned, that even parties of negotiations in Belarus scarcely have exhaustive information about a real situation.
Mind tries to figure out what pack of cards Ukraine use in this diplomatic game and what reason has led Ukraine to a negotiating table.
There are multiple reasons, but the main one is purely subjective and illogical. It cannot be explained by anything other but Putin's personal motives.
These motives lay far away from political and economic rationality. They come down to abstract “lands gathering” / the special way / personal messianism / cultivation of Soviet and therefore “correct” values.
They are going to legitimize their military crimes starting from Crimea annexation, and simultaneously present to the Russian people the conclusion of the Ukrainian campaign as a victory.
The situation in Ukraine can be considered as a crisis of Russian political tacticians, who have already defaced themselves.
The Russian elites' plan impresses by its ingenuousness, straightforwardness and absurdity. Their intention to replace the current Ukrainian authority with political refugees or marginals like Oleh Tsaryov is totally impossible because of hostility to these personalities in Ukraine.
This situation could have been definitely shown by sociological survey they should conduct before the military campaign. But now it is obvious, that they did not make any public opinion research, or they faked the results to make them more pleasant for the chief of state.
Andrey Makarevich, a Russian musician, straightly described this set of circumstances in the following way: “They might not see the real picture of what happening at all to make such a mistake in calculations. If you do not see it, how do you rule?”
Do they have a plan B?
No at all, but the situation becomes sharper. While Putin diligently cherished his blitzkrieg plan, which was not as adjusted as it should be, and dreamed about the establishing of the Soviet Union, new, but old-fashioned in terms of values, that could come true two days after the invasion of Kyiv, plan B's absence led Kremlin into a dead-end. An urgent necessity in a new portion of propaganda for Russian people appeared. The fact is Russians have impoverished twice for 12 days because ruble reached its historical record.
Russian screens started pouring the flows of stories about “military drugs” interfered the liberators to finish the campaign in a couple of days, or secret nuclear weapon development. Moreover, they tried to explain that horrors of war are needed for preventing LGBT parades in Donbas. All this rubbish does not have any significant influence on Western countries, the main finance suppliers for Putin buying energy resources in Russia.
Ukraine can be a true symbol of The Soviet Union, all it takes is to turn it into a mausoleum and sell it to the West.
“The second advent” of Viktor Yanukovych is discussed with absolute seriousness, once again demonstrating that the Russian side has completely lost foreigh policy landmarks and how totally distant it is from understanding the Ukrainian reality.
Yanukovych is attempted to be brought back to power as the only legitimate Ukrainian president.
At first, this seemed like nothing more than a joke. But very soon it became clear that there is a plan B after Yanukovych aircraft was spotted over Belarus and speakers of the Kremlin from Ramzan Kadyrov to Illia Kyva started posting copy pasted texts describing this optionless outcome.
In fact, this plan is even less consistent and feasible than a two-day blitzkrieg.
The Ukrainian people of Kherson, Melitopol and other cities and towns have actually proven that it’s impossible to conquer the folk even if you have occupied their lands. The fate of the forcibly imposed ruler is predetermined.
Once again we should note the ambiguity of the US statements. The further the war goes into the Ukraine, the longer it lasts and the larger the number of civilians suffer in this war, the more ambiguous the White House statements sound.
Against the background of exaggerated rumors about Yanukovych, the White House suddenly started to reason over the possible scenario of events in case of physical elimination of the Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, obviously underestimating the level of support and trust in him.
Against the background of Russian propaganda and Russian administration flight to the USA to bring the expelled diplomats back home, according to the official statement, there are also growing rumors about an attempt to negotiate between the terrorist country and the US. These rumors are fueled by the continued US and NATO silence on requests to close the skies and provide at least air defenses and aircraft.
The Kremlin has already lost.