What happened? Senior Biden administration officials say the next four weeks of war will determine the outcome of russia's war against Ukraine. The long-term consequences will affect the drawing of the map of Europe for decades to come.
Source. This was reported by “The New York Times”, with a number of references on high-ranking American officials on condition of anonymity.
Details. According to officials, if russia can break through to the East, putin will be better positioned at home to sell his so-called “special military operation” as a limited success and say he has protected Ukraine's pro-russian minority.
What does it mean? Then he could use Donbas as a lever of pressure in any negotiations.
But if Ukrainian defenders can stop the offensive, putin will have to choose between committing more combat power to a fight that could drag on for years or negotiating in earnest at peace talks. At the same time, the first option could mean the general mobilization of russians, which will be a huge political risk.
A senior State Department official said this phase of the battle was to some extent advantageous for russia, whose occupying forces were moving across the open area rather than across the cities. However, the Pentagon believes that if properly armed and maintained high motivation, Ukrainian forces will not only stop russia's advance, but also reject it.
Quote. “The Russians are in a weakened state from which they may well be able to recover given enough time and new conscripts. Therefore, it is paramount to strike at them now with everything we can give the Ukrainians,” said Evelyn N. Farkas, the top Pentagon policy official for Russia and Ukraine during the Obama administration, when Russia annexed the Crimean Peninsula. Current and former US military leaders with experience of working in Ukraine and Europe have agreed with her.