This year, the European Union may avoid a recession, according to Piotr Arak, director of the Polish Economic Institute.
The economist said this in Warsaw during the conference "Stable Public Finances in Unstable Times," Polish Radio reports.
Piotr Arak estimated that the good state of the EU economy is influenced by overcoming the shift away from Russian energy resources:
"The European Union can avoid a recession this year, we have a warm winter, we skillfully distribute gas reserves, and these very negative scenarios for the EU economy do not come true," he said.
Another challenge is inflation. However, according to the director of the Polish Economic Institute, there is a possibility that this year will bring an end to the high price growth and further recession.
High inflation in Poland is also noted by the European Commission, which in its winter forecast lowered the forecast for Poland's GDP growth this year from 0.7% to 0.4%.
The Commission's analysts point to negative phenomena such as rising inflation and low consumer and business confidence.
The Polish government is more optimistic about the situation. This year's GDP growth is fixed at 1.7% in the state budget.
The black scenario of twenty percent inflation will not materialize in Poland. This was assured by Deputy Finance Minister Artur Sobon. As he explained, in recent months there has been a significant increase in food prices due to a shortage of goods on the markets, but greater stability in energy and fuel prices, as well as the restructuring of supply chains, are reducing inflation.
The deputy minister expects inflation to fall below ten percent by the end of the year.
Background. Meanwhile, the Ukrainian Ministry of Economy expects inflation to increase. This is attributed to the expansion of consumer demand in the context of gradual economic stabilization.