One of the big questions that will arise during Chinese President Xi Jinping's visit to Moscow this week is how much he will help an isolated Russia both on and off the battlefield – and what he will get from Putin for it.
Source. This is reported in a CNBC article.
It is no secret that Russia would like China to help it while it is stuck in the economic and military impasse caused by the invasion of Ukraine.
Officially, the war in Ukraine and China's "peace plan" will be discussed during the current meeting between Xi and Putin in Moscow, which begins on Tuesday.
Unofficially, however, analysts say the presidents will likely also discuss ways for China to help Russia bypass Western sanctions.
Geopolitical analysts fully agree: China never acts solely out of altruism, and there is always a price (or reward) for its support or intervention.
On Tuesday, Xi and Putin are expected to issue a joint statement and potentially sign other energy-related agreements. At the same time, analysts say that Beijing is seeking to gain access to Russian goods and resources at a discount.
"Putin is weak going into these negotiations," said Timothy Ash, an emerging markets strategist. – "I wonder what price Xi will demand for saving Putin. He has to get something out of it."
"Xi knows that Putin is desperate and increasingly dependent on China. It is all the better if Putin is willing to offer China long-term commodity deals with a price cut. China will take whatever it can from a weakened Putin," he says.
China will also count on Russia's support if it engages in an armed conflict with Taiwan, says Alicja Baczulska, policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations.
"But in the short term, the economic relationship between China and Russia will become even more asymmetrical, with Russia becoming a very cheap source of energy for China," she added.
China and Russia have much in common on an ideological level; both countries have long had hostile relations with the West and despise an expansionist NATO, and both share a desire to reduce US dominance.
However, Beijing will be restrained from going too far in supporting the Kremlin, which is fomenting war.
Timothy Ash noted that China will tread carefully with Russia, knowing not to provoke fear and anxiety among countries known as the "Global South" (a term used for countries in Latin America, Africa, Asia and Oceania).
"Xi is facing a choice: redouble his efforts to support and arm Putin to keep the war in Ukraine going, or focus on peace efforts. In the first case, he will simply lose the Global South, so I think China wants to give Putin a chance to get off the slippery slope," Ash said.
Background. As a reminder, the day before, Xi Jinping arrived in Russia to discuss a "peace plan" with Putin regarding the war in Ukraine. At the same time, the Chinese leader expressed confidence that the Russian people would "strongly support" Putin in his "good" endeavors.