Due to a massive missile strike – the largest that Odessa has suffered since the beginning of the full-scale invasion – grain terminals and port infrastructure in Odessa and Chornomorsk were damaged. According to Oleksandr Kubrakov, Minister for Communities, Territories and Infrastructure Development of Ukraine, the goal of the russian terrorists is to destroy any grain supply routes to global markets. Mind explored whether the night attack brought the aggressor closer to this goal.
What exactly was targeted and damaged? russia carried out a targeted airstrike with accumulated Oniks and Kh-22 missiles on grain and oil terminals in ports. The grain infrastructure of international and Ukrainian traders and carriers Kernel, Viterra, CMA CGM Group was damaged, with both direct hits and fragment hits recorded. Tanks, transshipment equipment, and berths of the Odessa Sea Port were damaged. 60,000 tonnes of grain were destroyed in the port of Chornomorsk.
As a result of the attack, residential buildings were damaged as well, and over 10 people were injured.
How long will it take to restore the infrastructure? According to experts, it will take at least a year to fully restore the facilities that suffered this night.
Is grain export possible after this attack? Theoretically – yes, as not all infrastructure was affected. However, this is a conditional possibility, as passage through the waters is not safe after the expiry of the grain agreement.
The kremlin has stated that they will return to the agreement after the conditions of the russian federation are met. The russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs has published a statement on the withdrawal of shipping safety guarantees under the Black Sea Grain Initiative.
What is Ukraine's reaction? Volodymyr Zelensky stated that "russian terrorists deliberately targeted the grain deal infrastructure, and every russian missile is a blow not only to Ukraine, but to everyone in the world."
The military is looking for ways to increase the protection of port infrastructure, and the Foreign Ministry is intensifying contacts with partners to increase pressure on the terrorist state and continue normal export of Ukrainian grain.
Besides, Zelensky stated that "Ukraine is exploring the possibility of the safe operation of the grain corridor, including possible convoy escorts". Turkey or the UN are suggested to ensure these convoys. However, the likelihood that one of these parties will enter direct military confrontation with the russian federation does not seem very probable.
What prospects do market participants see? The president of the Ukrainian Grain Association, Mykola Gorbachov, proposes two options for the continuation of sea exports from Greater Odessa.
The first is support from the Turkish navy. If this country provides its cargo ships, Ukraine will be able to load grain and safely navigate the seas.
The second is a special insurance fund of 20 billion UAH, created by Ukraine. This money is intended to be used for compensation payments in case of unforeseen situations.
The territorial waters, where trading ships face the greatest danger, stretch 12 miles. If the Ukrainian military ensures safe navigation there, export will be possible.