Russia will most likely be forced to disperse and withdraw its military aviation away from the front line after the delivery of US long-range ATACMS missiles to Ukraine.
Source. This was reported by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
According to analysts, the redeployment of frontline aviation to the rear will temporarily reduce the defensive and offensive capabilities of the Russian army. This applies primarily to helicopters, which played an important role in deterring the Ukrainian offensive by striking enemy armored vehicles in the summer of 2023.
The dispersal of aviation to more airfields is also likely to cause major problems with the coordination of operations, ISW argues.
"The Russian army has consistently demonstrated that it can adapt to Ukraine's new strike capabilities – but only after suffering the first serious losses from these capabilities, which the Russian command should have actually prepared for," the analysts write.
In addition, according to the institute, the arrival of ATACMS in Ukraine threatens Russian ammunition depots and is likely to force the Russian Armed Forces command to choose between strengthening existing depots or further scattering of depots across the occupied territories. In the summer of 2022, when Ukraine received HIMARS, Russia already had to disperse its warehouses, which complicated the supply of ammunition to the front line, analysts say.
The United States secretly delivered several ATACMS missiles to Ukraine, about 20 units.
On the night of October 17, the Ukrainian Armed Forces used them for the first time against Russian troops, hitting two air bases in Luhansk and Berdiansk. As a result, at least 9 helicopters were damaged.
Background. As a reminder, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy confirmed that Ukraine had received American long-range missiles.