The modern military views the war in Ukraine as a testing ground for advanced weapons. But observers in China, hoping to study Russia's use of hypersonic missiles – one of the most touted tools in China's own arsenal – signal that Moscow's developments have not met their expectations.
Source. This was reported by The Business Insider.
Last year, Chinese defense magazines wrote with great interest about the Russian Kinzhal, analyzing its effectiveness against the Patriot systems provided by the United States and in the war in general.
And for good reason: the appearance of the Kinzhal in Ukraine is the first opportunity for Beijing to observe how such a sophisticated weapon interacts with Western equipment.
Chinese military experts have given a low assessment of the Kinzhal missiles that Putin presented in 2018, claiming that they "have no analogues" and are capable of overcoming even advanced missile defense systems.
The X-47M2 Kinzhal missiles have proven to be vulnerable to the US Patriot missiles developed in the 1970s, which are now used by Ukraine's air defense forces.
Or, according to Ukrainian and American military reports, these missiles simply do not hit their targets.
"There is growing evidence that the US and Ukrainian statements on this issue are true," states an article in the Shanghai military magazine Ordnance Industry Science and Technology, whose publications are approved by the Chinese Communist Party.
Despite the Kremlin's declarations, these missiles cannot significantly change the situation on the battlefield, the article says.
Presenting the Kinzhal, Putin called it the world's first maneuverable hypersonic missile. However, its maneuverability "cannot be compared to that of a real hypersonic missile," the Shanghai magazine said, and the trajectory it follows makes it vulnerable to air defense systems such as Patriot.
In an analysis published in Military Arms, a leading Beijing-based military science journal, the Kinzhal is called "basically just a version of the Iskander tactical ballistic missile. It is practically unable to maneuver at supersonic speeds, and its ability to plan in the atmosphere at long distances does not meet expectations.
"The Kinzhal is based on "outdated technology from the 1980s," the Shanghai magazine says.
The problem is exacerbated by an inefficient launch system and a lack of satellites to ensure accuracy ("Russia's GLONASS navigation system is in a state of disrepair"). The "Daggers" were transferred from MiG-31 aircraft to more modern Su-34s. However, the latter have suffered huge losses (25 aircraft, according to Oryx, more than 20% of 121), so Kinzhalas are launched from Russian territory, away from Ukrainian air defense. However, the Su-34 is too slow (and the heavy Kinzhal further reduces its speed) to give the missile the necessary acceleration for long-range flight.
The article calls the accuracy of the Kinzhal "unsatisfactory" and they can be intercepted by anti-missile systems currently in service.
In addition, Russia apparently has few such missiles left in its stockpile, the article says.
The Washington-based Institute for the Study of War noted in December, citing Ukrainian intelligence, that Russia can only produce about four Kinzhal a month.
China hopes that its own Dongfeng hypersonic missile will be a game changer in its ability to shoot down U.S. aircraft carriers.
Background. Read about how the aggressor country's defense industry circumvents sanctions and who helps it in this in Mind's article "Thermal Imager in Two Clicks. Buying high-tech electronics for Russia through Turkey and Kazakhstan has become easier than ever".