Russian dictator Vladimir Putin is preparing for a large-scale war with NATO in the long term, experts from the US Institute for the Study of War (ISW) warn.
According to the ISW, the Kremlin's plans are evidenced by the reform of the military-administrative division of the Russian Federation, which Putin approved by his decree on 26 February. According to this document, Russia is recreating the Moscow and Leningrad Military Districts, which were abolished and merged into the Western Military District during the reform of Defence Minister Anatoly Serdyukov in the early 2010s.
By the same decree, Putin included the annexed regions of Ukraine in the Southern Military District and also stripped the Northern Fleet, which includes most of Russia's strategic nuclear submarines, of its special status. The fleet is now part of the Leningrad Military District.
These innovations, according to ISW experts, are aimed at "consolidating control over Russian operations in Ukraine in the short and medium term".
The second goal is to "prepare for a large-scale non-nuclear war against NATO in the long term," the institute's report says.
The Western Military District controlled the entire western border of Russia, which blurred the "strategic focus" of Russian forces, ISW notes. Its division into two districts will solve the problem, experts say: The Moscow Military District will control the border with Ukraine and Poland, and the Leningrad Military District will control the north-eastern border of NATO.
This will help the army to simultaneously control the fighting in Ukraine and take strategic positions in relation to the countries of the North Atlantic Alliance, according to ISW.
The institute's experts also recall that the Kremlin explained the decision to create the Leningrad Military District by the accession of new members to NATO – Finland and Sweden.
In addition to reforming the military districts, Putin ordered an increase in the size of the Russian army. According to a presidential decree of December 2023, the number of personnel in the Russian Armed Forces is to increase to 2.209 million, of which 1.32 million are direct military personnel.
Background. As a reminder, NATO countries have begun preparing roads and railways for the transfer of equipment in case of war with Russia.