The Ukrainian Centre for Economic Strategy has conducted a sociological survey, according to which only 26% of Ukrainian refugees plan to return home.
According to the Centre, the number of Ukrainians who have left the country and intend to return has significantly decreased compared to 2022, when their share was about 50%.
Hlib Vyshlinsky, head of the Centre for Economic Strategy, told a press conference at the Ukrinform news agency that his organisation had conducted three waves of research on the mood of Ukrainian refugees and that the figures were "quite indicative", but "the dynamics are worth paying attention to".
"We see significant negative changes in the proportion of Ukrainians who plan to return," Vyshlinsky was quoted as saying by Ukrinform, "So, if in November 2022, 50% of respondents definitely planned to return, in May 2023, there were already 41% of them, and, according to the survey, in January 2024, only 26% of such people."
The expert believes that more and more Ukrainians are more satisfied with life in their country of residence than at home. According to him, the proportion of refugees whose income has risen again to the level they had before the war has increased significantly.
Among the factors that may contribute to the return of Ukrainians, Vyshlinsky mentioned the end of the war and the cessation of constant shelling by Russia and the improvement of living standards in Ukraine.
However, the cessation of hostilities, according to the head of the Centre for Economic Strategy, does not guarantee the repatriation of refugees.
"We estimate the number of refugees who will remain abroad in three scenarios: optimistic, medium and pessimistic," Vyshlinsky was quoted as saying by Ukrinform. "According to our calculations, out of the 3.6 million Ukrainians who are currently living in democratic countries, 1.4 million Ukrainians will remain there after the war ends in the optimistic scenario, 2 million in the medium scenario and 2.3 million in the pessimistic scenario."
According to the European Union, by the end of 2023, 4.2 million Ukrainians had been granted asylum in EU countries since the start of Russia's full-scale invasion