The exchange of Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny for Russian prisoners serving time in a German jail could indeed take place. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz actually personally discussed the exchange of the oppositionist for Berlin hitman Viktor Krasikov in Washington with Joe Biden.
However, the US administration did not have time to offer this exchange to the Russian leadership, according to The Wall Street Journal.
"According to people familiar with the circumstances, the Kremlin learned of the conversation through a private intermediary," the newspaper writes. – "On 16 February, a week after the Oval Office meeting, Navalny died.
The newspaper claims that Putin has been deliberately recruiting foreign prisoners for several years to create an exchange pool and "exchange them for the few Russians he really wants back."
Once it was just one ex-Marine, Paul Whelan, but now WSJ journalist Evan Gershkowitz has been added to the list, and the US has no more Russian prisoners worthy of exchange.
That is why Washington has turned to allies who still have convicted spies and murderers, like Krasikov in Germany.
The WSJ also writes that the unequal exchange of "arms baron" Viktor Booth for basketball player Brittney Griner, convicted in Russia for drug smuggling, was a loss for the United States in 2022. The choice of Whelan over the black athlete Greiner was prevented by a broad public outcry amid the US culture wars, which is exactly what the Russian side was counting on, the WSJ notes.
The same happened with the exchange of former Marine Trevor Reed for Russian pilot Konstantin Yaroshenko.
In the case of Navalny, the Russian side wanted to exchange one Gershkovich for Krasikov. Germany and the United States wanted to get Paul Whelan as well, the publication says. However, with Navalny's death, all negotiations stopped.
Nothing prevents the Russian authorities from continuing to use this tactic, the newspaper believes, and therefore the number of Americans in Russian prisons may increase.
Background. Germany reportedly refused to exchange prisoners with Russia after Navalny's death.