Renowned military analyst Dara Massicotte of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Dara Massicotte tweeted an express analysis of the situation in the Kharkiv region, where the Russian military has launched an offensive.
She analyses the question of what exactly are the goals of the Russian army: a limited invasion aimed at creating a "buffer zone" (as the Ukrainian military has also said), or an attempt to intimidate and distract the Ukrainian army?
Massicotte recalls that earlier the Russian Ministry of Defence announced the creation of a new operational group of troops "North" and appointed General Alexander Lapin as its commander (in 2022, he commanded the "Centre" group, which launched the invasion of Ukraine).
According to the expert, to capture the entire Kharkiv region, the Russian army needs 75,000 to 100,000 troops and heavy equipment, and it does not have such capabilities now. Similarly, the Russian army does not have the resources to occupy Kharkiv, Massicotte said.
However, to create a 30-kilometre sanitary zone near the border in Kharkiv region, she estimates that 30-40,000 troops with the appropriate armoured vehicles are needed.
According to Massicotte, so far the Russian army has not deployed a significant number of armoured vehicles, using aircraft and drones along with infantry attacks. However, it is not yet clear whether this is due to a lack of equipment or a desire to use it at a later stage of the operation.
In any case, the military expert believes that the offensive in Kharkiv region is diverting Russian resources that could have been used in Donetsk or other parts of the frontline.
At the same time, she has not noticed any signs of troops being redeployed to the Kharkiv sector from the occupied areas of Ukraine. This suggests that the grouping in this region will be formed from inexperienced reserves or reformed units.
Massicott believes that the best idea of the goals of the Russian army can be obtained by examining which Russian units and resources are concentrated on the border and their numbers.
At the same time, the burden on the Ukrainian Armed Forces, which have to solve similar problems in these difficult times, is inevitably increasing, she stressed.
Background. As a reminder, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that on the morning of 10 May, Russia launched a new wave of offensive actions in Kharkiv region, but the Armed Forces of Ukraine had prepared in advance for enemy attacks in this area and met the enemy with "troops, brigades and artillery".