According to calculations by the American Forbes, in July, for the first time, Ukrainian forces carried out more drone strikes on Russian territory than the Russian army did on Ukraine.
In a publication prepared by combat drone expert David Hambling, it is said that Russia sent 426 kamikaze drones at Ukrainian targets last month, while Ukraine responded with 520 such drones.
The author refers to the data of the OSINT analytical account Shahed Tracker on the X network.
According to Hambling, "Russia is probably not as effective at shooting down attacking drones, and it seems that Ukrainian strikes are causing more economic damage to oil refineries and other facilities."
"Ukraine may be gaining an advantage in the long-range strategic war of drones – and President Zelenskyi promises the appearance of a larger number of even better strike drones," the expert notes.
He writes that Russia now produces about 120 missiles a month – and releases approximately the same number of them at targets in Ukraine every month. At the same time, due to the low cost of the Shahed type strike drones, it allows it to strike at a long distance of more than 1,500 km, and possibly up to 3,000 km.
As a rule, Russia releases up to 30 "shaheeds" in one strike, but in Ukraine they are monitored by a whole network of microphones tuned to the characteristic "moped" sound of engines. Then they are shot down by mobile air defense groups armed with heavy machine guns.
Many such drones also destroy anti-aircraft missiles, and some are knocked off the course of electronic warfare systems, the publication said.
According to the author, Ukraine usually shoots down 90% of "shaheeds", and sometimes all 100%. While some drones still cause damage, the threat does not appear to be increasing, the author believes.
In response, Ukraine has developed a large number of its own strike drones: according to experts, it uses at least 22 modifications of drones, from converted light aircraft to devices equipped with jet engines.
In recent weeks, Ukraine has often carried out massive attacks on Russian targets with its drones, which are sometimes accompanied by strikes using Western-made missiles, writes Forbes.
According to the author's calculations, Ukraine saw a sharp increase in the number of such strikes in July, to 524, compared to about 200 in June and May.
These attacks were directed against both Russian energy facilities and air bases, which presents the Russian army with a difficult choice: whether to withdraw air defense systems from the front line and which targets to protect in the first place.
Last December, the Minister of Strategic Industry of Ukraine, Oleksandr Kamyshin, said that by 2024, he intends to ensure the production of 10,000 strike drones, that is, more than 830 per month.
So far, Ukraine has not been able to exceed the figure of approximately 600 drones launched by Russia at targets in Ukraine in March and December. However, the July figures may indicate a turning point in the drone war, the author believes.
Background. Today, the State Special Communications Service announced that the first tender for the purchase of domestic FPV drones was announced in Ukraine – it is planned to purchase 100 drones for approximately UAH 135 million.