Ukraine shows significant progress in fulfilling commitments to international donors, but delays in implementation may cause funding delays
This is evidenced by data from RRR4U Monitoring.
"We have reached a historic milestone by successfully completing the sixth review of the IMF program. Ukraine has never gone this far before. This indicates a certain level of effectiveness in doing our homework. However, the question is what comes next, as Ukraine has not fulfilled two structural benchmarks necessary for the seventh review. The program has already been 63% completed in terms of funding. In the coming years, we will receive fewer funds. The maximum amount we can receive in 2025 is $2.7 billion, provided we meet all the benchmarks. A difficult seventh review awaits us in March since we have not repealed the 'Lozovyi amendments' and have not created the High Administrative Court. These structural benchmarks have already been postponed several times," said Yurii Romashko, executive director of the Institute for Analytics and Advocacy.
As a result of the review, three new structural benchmarks were added:
At the same time, Ukraine has failed to fulfill two commitments whose deadlines expired on December 31.
Regarding Ukraine Facility, experts found no unfulfilled commitments, although certain challenges remained.
According to Aliona Korohod, an expert at DiXi Group, Ukraine successfully completed its required tasks in 2024 and secured €16.1 billion for the budget. In 2025, provided that the required indicators are met, Ukraine could receive €12.5 billion.
After fulfilling the third-quarter indicators, the European Commission disbursed a €4.1 billion tranche only in mid-December. Due to the lack of a partial payment mechanism for completed indicators, Ukraine received the full amount despite delays in fulfilling indicator 4.4.
EU and IMF funding are not Ukraine’s only financial sources. "2025 will primarily be funded through the ERA mechanism. These are the $50 billion that Ukraine will receive from G7 countries using revenues from frozen Russian assets. This year, ERA will cover most of our financial needs. Despite all the geopolitical and military challenges facing Ukraine, from a budgetary standpoint, we are entering the year in a more stable position than in 2024," explained Maksym Samoiliuk, economist at the Center for Economic Strategy.
Ukraine requires $38 billion in funding in 2025, of which:
Oleksandra Betlii, senior researcher at the Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting, believes that substantial funding hinders making difficult decisions.
"There is a risk that making important decisions regarding both the IMF and Ukraine Facility will be more difficult because the need for money is not as critical. However, without funds and an active IMF program that Ukraine is fulfilling, securing financing for 2026 will be very difficult," she noted.
Background. Earlier, Mind reported that the Cabinet of Ministers approved the Strategy for the Development of Border Infrastructure with EU countries and Moldova until 2030, as well as the Strategy for Reforming Psychiatric and Other Residential Institutions until 2034. These two strategic documents are steps in Ukraine’s plan under the Ukraine Facility financial assistance program.