Prolongation of the "grain corridor" may become problematic: russia is already sabotaging the inspection of ships. Who can Ukraine rely on?
And why it is important to prevent blocking of caravans with grain
During the first two months of the "grain corridor" operation, 305 vessels used it to leave Ukraine and almost the same number, to enter Ukrainian waters. There were five ships loaded with grain per day on average. The intensity of the corridor's work has increased considerably compared to the first weeks: in September, Ukraine shipped over 3.7 million tonnes of food by sea, which is 2.2 times more than in August. On 9 October alone, 13 agricultural ships left the ports of Greater Odesa.
However, the situation may change in October. Why exactly this is happening and whether it can be prevented, Mind investigated.
How is the inspection of ships arranged? Inspection of vessels – both entering and leaving Ukrainian waters – is a prerequisite for the operation of the "grain corridor". It is a great diplomatic success that this role was taken by a third party, Turkey, although initially Russia insisted on its priority right of control. However, this review is absolutely not a sham and is as thorough as possible.
Turkish media present the "grain corridor" as a great geopolitical victory for President Recep Erdoğan. Therefore, even a shadow of doubt that the arbitrator does not comply with the obligations should not fall on Turkey.
The inspectors take two to four hours to complete the inspection of one ship. All voids, ballast tanks, engine room, other rooms are examined – this is only a visual part of the inspection.
The second stage of the inspection is the audit of all accompanying documents of the transmitter and recipient of the cargo, as well as the list of crew, their personal information, freight declaration, fuel consumption levels. There are generally four to five inspection teams on the ground, each of which inspects four vessels per day.
According to the Coordination Centre in Istanbul, 591 vessels have been inspected in just over two months: 306 inbound and 285 outbound, allowing 6.4 million tonnes of grain and foodstuff to be exported from Ukrainian ports.
What were the obstacles? The information that Russia – a party to the quadripartite Istanbul agreement – demands to set limits on the passage of Ukrainian ships at the level of 12 ships per day was initially unofficial. However, last week, it was confirmed by an increasing number of people involved in the grain market, and the timing of the inspection of ships indeed began to slow down. In order to ensure the uninterrupted passage of ships in the queue to leave, it is necessary to inspect 25 ships per day. It should be noted that the maximum daily figure at the stage of working out the "grain corridor" was 15 ships.
If this limit is – openly or tacitly – introduced, the pace of Ukrainian grain exports, which can already be said to be comparable to the pre-war ones, will slow down significantly.
How did it become clear that the sabotage begins? The fact that the inspection of ships of the "grain corridor" has slowed down by more than half in a month is confirmed by the SovEcon international centre's analytics.
While at the start of the corridor's operation Ukrainian vessels were cleared in a maximum of six days, although there were cases when formalities were completed in 2-3 days, now it takes 12-15 days on average.
This slowdown can be logically explained by the increase in the intensity of exports and the number of ships requiring inspection, which the Coordination Centre in Istanbul cannot cope with.
However, it is also reasonable that these delays began shortly after Vladimir Putin publicly criticised the format of the Istanbul Agreement, complaining that Ukrainian grain was allegedly going to developed rich countries, and not to starving Africa, for the sake of which it all began.
On 15-16 September, Putin and Erdoğan met in Samarkand, where the implementation of the Istanbul Agreement was one of the key issues on the agenda.
Whatever the reasons, in fact, now Ukraine is able to ship (and does) about 1 million tonnes of grain per week, but then the ships may wait in the Bosporus to pass the inspection for weeks. The number of ships there is already approaching a hundred.
The Coordination Centre claims that the waiting time is on average nine days and promises to work on solving the problem. Also, as noted, the time of passing control also depends on the readiness of the ship, cargo and all accompanying papers.
What will happen next with the Istanbul Agreement? The Istanbul Agreement is concluded for 120 days and can be automatically prolonged if no party has any comments. It expires on 19 November.
As this date approaches, it is becoming increasingly clear that there will be no easy prolongation. This was also hinted at by representatives of the Office of the President of Ukraine, calling the negotiations on the extension of the grain export mandate "complicated".
They are also complicated by the price tag that has risen: in the midst of Ukrainian successes at the frontline, exports in September grew to a record value since the beginning of the war. Thus, the volume of exports from Ukraine in monetary terms increased by more than 23% compared to August this year – up to $ 4.144 billion. The volume of goods increased from August 7.29 million tonnes, by 32%, to 9.66 million tonnes.
What can Russia demand in exchange for Ukraine's ability to continue trade? Recep Tayyip Erdoğan knows it best.
Following the summit of the European Political Community in Prague, he said that in the future fertiliser supplies from Russia can be carried out via Turkey and clearly linked this idea with the "grain corridor".
"Thanks to the 'grain corridor', more than 6 million tons of food, including wheat, have been exported from Ukraine. We will make efforts to start deliveries of fertilisers from Russia. In the future, they can be carried out to countries that need it through Turkey," Erdoğan said. Details of the deliveries, as well as the possible date of their start, are not specified.