Yesterday, January 19, on the penultimate day of the World Economic Forum in Davos, the Ukrainian Formula for Peace, a step-by-step plan to end hostilities in Ukraine, was presented. The project was presented by Andriy Yermak, Head of the Presidential Office (PO) of Ukraine.
It was not a premiere. A similar or almost similar list has been presented several times. For the first time, it was presented by President Volodymyr Zelensky during an online broadcast at the G7 summit in Bali, Indonesia, last fall.
Again, Yermak has already discussed this "framework" on December 9 during a meeting with G7 ambassadors. Mind has been monitoring what the Ukrainian government's understanding of a peaceful settlement is and how the international community is reacting to it.
What is the Ukrainian Peace Formula? The basic components of the formula can be divided into:
See the full list below.
To summarise, the main goal of the UPF is to end the war and prevent its recurrence by russia in the future. It applies to Ukraine or any other country.
What is expected (or not) from russia? No one has any illusions about russia's reaction to these proposals. If russia were ready for peace, it would have already happened.
“I do not expect russia to accept this plan. Otherwise, it would have happened already. It is much more important that the world – most countries – support the Ukrainian plan, enshrine it in a resolution and isolate russia. putin cannot fight against the whole world,” said the Head of the PO. “What is happening in Soledar, Bakhmut, and what has happened in Dnipro shows that diplomacy with russia does not work.”
Is it possible to predict the date of the end of the war? In terms of understanding what is happening, the post-presentation part of the discussion was much more informative. It was moderated by Jamil Anderlini, POLITICO Europe’s Editor-in-Chief.
Answering the question about the likelihood that the war will end in 2023, the Head of the Ukrainian PO has said that the whole world and Ukraine itself are doing everything to bring peace closer. "Ukrainians believe that 2023 will be a victorious year," he said.
The format of the answer only confirms that any predictions at this stage are meaningless. At the same time, speaking at the NV conference in Kyiv, Dragon Capital founder Tomáš Fiala said something similar. According to him, under an optimistic scenario, the intensity of hostilities will decline in the third quarter of 2023.
What scenarios are possible? Today, Ukraine is adhering to the maximum plan: returning to the 1991 borders. In his haste to refute the possibility that there could be a scenario for ending the war that does not involve the return of Crimea, Andriy Yermak even shouted "No!" in Ukrainian, forgetting that he was addressing the English-speaking audience.
However, the wording of the question was revealing. Especially considering that it came from a representative of Politico. This media outlet, although sometimes guilty of excessive loyalty to "russian interests", is hardly to be suspected of being uninformed. Thus, according to Jamil Anderlini, there is some pressure from NATO to ensure that part of Donbas and possibly Crimea remain the status quo. "It is pointless to put pressure on us in this regard," Yermak said.
How long will the West be ready to help us? The Head of the PO does not record a decrease in the level of external support and growing fatigue from the war. "We see that support is getting stronger. Our partners believe in our victory," he said, emphasising that this support can be expressed not only in direct aid.
How can one help Ukraine? States can demonstrate global leadership, in particular, by creating registers of russian assets on their territory and redirecting them to compensate Ukraine.
In digital and other terms, the United States remains the undisputed leader in terms of the amount of assistance provided. However, the effect is even greater for small countries that have given Ukraine half or almost all of their weaponry.
The main conclusion from the Ukrainian delegation's participation in WEF 2023 is both tragic and proud: the war is far from over, but Ukraine is ready to fight.
- What kind of help do you expect most from the collective West right now?
- Weapons, and the heaviest ones possible.
Mind recalls the main provisions of the Ukrainian Peace Formula:
1. Radiological and nuclear safety – withdrawal of the russian military from the territory of Zaporizhzhia NPP, as well as the exclusion of nuclear blackmail in the future.
2. Food security – unimpeded operation of the ports of Greater Odesa and all other Ukrainian ports; control over the influence of russian agricultural products on foreign markets.
3. Energy security – the first step in Ukraine's integration into the European energy system has already been taken.
4. Release of all captives and deportees.
5. Implementation of the UN Charter and restoration of territorial integrity and world order. The return of Crimea and Donbas, already mentioned earlier.
6. Withdrawal of russian troops and cessation of hostilities.
7. Justice and punishment – the establishment of a court for crimes committed by russia.
8. Prevention and compensation of ecocide – assessment of the damage caused to the ecosystem of Ukraine and its compensation through reparations.
9. Preventing the recurrence of escalation – post-war security requires changes in the Euro-Atlantic space.
10. Fixing the end of the war – signing a multilateral treaty that will start a new stage in the history of a strong European Ukraine.