This year marks one year since the start of russia's large-scale invasion of Ukraine. The campaign, which began at 4 a.m. on February 24, 2022 and was originally intended to last three days, is far from being over. And although the outcome of this war has been clear for some time and the aggressor's defeat is certain, Ukraine will come out with huge losses.
Any assessment at this stage is preliminary. Numbers may update several times a day depending on the intensity of aerial raids and bombings. But a year is a period during which we have to draw conclusions, albeit provisional ones.
Mind begins an initiative called “The Year of Unbreakable Strength” to analyse the impact of military aggression on various sectors of the national economy. In doing so we reveal key indicators reflecting their state after a year since its start.
Spoiler alert: Ukraine turns out to be more resilient than its friends feared and its enemies hoped for.
Here are the figures that attest to this:
$140 billion are the estimates of direct total material losses.
$50 billion – destruction of buildings and residential houses (both private and multi-storey); only in Mariupol alone 2,000 buildings were damaged out of which 800 can't be restored.
$40 billion made FDI inflow during 31 years since independence (1991–2022), while Poland attracted over $350 billion during this period.
Over 8,000 km of roads were fully destroyed mostly in eastern parts of the country.
Over 300 strategic bridges, including strategic ones, were demolished to slow down the enemy advance, some have already been restored including in Kharkiv and Kyiv oblasts, Bucha, Irpin respectively.
Losses to the country's energy infrastructure are kept secret; the number of damaged thermal, nuclear, transformer stations and transport pipelines is "in the tens" in each category.
Over $5 billion is the amount of the losses incurred to energy facilities, including solar, wind and hydroelectric power plants mostly located in southern regions of Kherson and Mykolayiv oblasts.
By 35% Ukraine's exports fell by the end of 2022.
By 30% shrunk the GDP in 2022.
30% was an average figure that accounted for the level of unemployment: one in three economically active Ukrainian citizens was looking for a job and failed to find it.
28% reached the consumer prices index (inflation) by the end of 2022, according to official data.
35% accounted for the real rate of consumer inflation in Ukraine last year, according to experts estimates.
$700–750 billion losses incurred on Ukraine’s economy due to military invasion considering both direct and indirect losses such as missed profits from companies and lost GDP figures.
2–3% of GDP can be accounted for losses due to bombardment of energy infrastructure.
2,5-3 times higher is the cost of electricity generated by a generator than that coming from a stationary source.
$5,5 billion were total losses suffered by two largest metal producing companies – Ilyich Steel & Iron Works and Azovstal.
More than $15 billion were industrial companies' overall losses including missed profits.
8 million people left Ukraine over this period.
$2–10 million would cost today the Ukrainian budget building a new hospital or university from scratch depending on current prices.
Over 100 billion UAH per month spends Ukraine on army including salaries for its personnel members.
144,440 casualties sustained russia from 24th February 2022 until 21st February 2023.
8684 dead and 10,947 injured was civilian population loss from 24th February 2022 till the end of last year (according to UN High Commissioner for Human Rights data).
By 4% is expected Ukraine's GDP to increase in 2023, according to the National Bank of Ukraine.
To 20% is expected unemployment to decrease by the end of 2023.
Between 15-18% will range the consumer price index this year.
$300 billion has russia in total in gold reserves frozen on accounts in Europe and the United States, which can be directed towards the recovery of Ukraine.
Oleksandr Bondarenko, managing partner of NGO Bureau of Investment Programmes, stated that today's total losses exceed $700 billion – an unprecedented figure in contemporary history. “It is important to understand that even if we rebuild every house, we will not live in the economy that was on February 23, 2022,” he explains. “Because enterprises will not work, people have gone away, economic wheels have stopped spinning. We need to stimulate the creation and growth of small and medium businesses that suffered most from the war. It is important to understand that simply erecting buildings will not return us to our pre-war economic status quo. We need programmes for business support and these programmes must be planned right now."