CIA chief: Putin believes that Russia cannot be a great power without controlling Ukraine

The head of the US Central Intelligence Agency, William Burns, wrote an article for Foreign Affairs magazine in which he assessed the scale of the Russian army's losses in the war with Ukraine and predicted that the Armed Forces will face difficult times this year.

According to Burns, at least 315,000 Russian soldiers have been killed or wounded in the nearly two years of war with Ukraine, the BBC reports.

In addition, according to him, two-thirds of the pre-war stockpile of Russian tanks has been destroyed, and "Putin's decades-long army modernization program has been exhausted."

In his article, Burns also predicted that "this year is likely to be a difficult year on the battlefield for Ukraine and will be a test of strength whose consequences will extend far beyond the country's heroic struggle to preserve its freedom and independence."

According to Burns, Putin is rebuilding Russia's military industry by "obtaining critical components from China, as well as weapons and ammunition from Iran and North Korea."

"Putin's bet is still that time is on his side, that he can grind Ukraine and exhaust its Western allies. The challenge for Ukraine is to undermine Putin's confidence and demonstrate that the continuation of the conflict will be costly for Russia," the CIA chief said.

On Russia's nuclear blackmail

According to the CIA chief, if Ukraine succeeds, Putin "may again resort to nuclear blackmail."

It would be foolish to completely ignore the risks of escalation. But it would be equally foolish to allow ourselves to be unnecessarily intimidated by such risks.

About Putin and his ambitions

I have spent much of the last 20 years trying to understand the explosive combination of resentment, ambition and insecurity that characterizes Russian President Vladimir Putin. One thing I have learned is that you can never underestimate his fixation on the need to control Ukraine and its choices. He believes that without such control, Russia cannot be a great power, and he cannot be a great Russian leader.

On Putin's reaction to Prigozhin's rebellion

For a leader who has done his best to create the image of an arbiter who maintains order, Putin looked distant and indecisive as the motley crowd of Prigozhin's mercenaries marched on Moscow. For many members of Russia's elites, the question was not even whether the king was naked, but why it took him so long to get dressed. A true believer in revenge, Putin later settled the score with Prigozhin, who died in a suspicious plane crash two months after his rebellion began.

On Western assistance to Ukraine

The key to success is to maintain Western aid to Ukraine. It accounts for less than 5% of the US defense budget and is a relatively small investment that brings significant geopolitical benefits to the US and substantial benefits to US industry.

For the United States, a decision to avoid this conflict and stop helping Ukraine at this critical juncture would be a goal in its own goal of historic proportions.

Background. As reported, British intelligence reported "minor" successes of the Russian army. The main priority for Russian forces is Avdiivka.