In less than two years of the war in Ukraine, Russia has lost more than 2,900 main battle tanks – roughly all of the tanks it had on the move before the invasion. But the stocks left over from the Soviet era will last for more than one year of fighting, even if current production is not taken into account, experts at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) believe.
Moscow compensates for the low quality of actions on the battlefield with quantity, according to the institute's annual report on the armed forces of the world, The Military Balance.
It has sent thousands of old tanks to the Ukrainian front from its reserves and warehouses, sometimes sending 90 vehicles a month. Despite this pace, Russia is ready and able to continue sending equipment to Ukraine:
"Regardless of its ability to produce new equipment, Moscow could potentially suffer heavy losses for another three years and fill them with tanks from its stockpile, albeit with low technical characteristics," the study says.
Currently, Russia has 4,000 tanks in its warehouses and 1,750 main battle tanks in the active army, ranging from old T-55s to modern T-80s and T-90s.
At the previous scale of losses, this number of tanks would have been enough for about two years, but last year the Russian army switched to defence. Therefore, it is no longer suffering such catastrophic losses as during the crossing of the Siverskyi Donets River in May 2022, when it lost about 80 armoured vehicles, or during the retreat from Kharkiv in September 2022, when it lost almost 100 tanks in 100 hours.
The war has moved into a positional stage: the front line hardly changes, and shelling – artillery, rocket and drone attacks – plays a major role. This situation is creating a "growing sense of stalemate in the confrontation that may persist through 2024," the report says.
The data provided by the IISS exceeds current estimates. Thus, according to the Oryx website, which keeps track of documented losses, Russia has lost 2,726 tanks, including the three oldest (T-55) and 108 tanks of several modifications of the latest model (T-90). Ukraine lost 741 tanks.
The war unleashed by Russia has forced NATO countries to significantly increase defence spending, and now they account for half of the world's total military budget, which increased by 9% to $2.2 trillion over the year, the IISS said.
The United States and Europe have taken the lead as the main sources of increased military spending in the world, explained Fenella McGarty, senior research fellow at the IISS. Investment in defence will continue to grow as the war in Ukraine continues, she said.
Background. As reported, due to a lack of ammunition, Ukrainian artillerymen are forced to change their shelling tactics. Ukraine is currently firing only 2,000 shells a day, while Russia is firing 10,000.