The Economist: according to Western politicians, the Russian war will last for another 5 years

Western officials are increasingly suggesting that Russia's war against Ukraine could drag on for another five years, given that neither Russia nor Ukraine is ready to give up, but neither is capable of making a breakthrough.

Source. The Economist writes about this.

The publication points out that the war in Ukraine has become a reminder not only of how much ammunition is consumed in major wars, but also of how poor Western arsenals and the ability to replenish them really are. The United States is dramatically increasing production of 155-mm artillery shells, but their production in 2025 will probably still be lower than that of Russia in 2024.

As an example of the tense situation with weapons, the publication compares the war in Ukraine and Israel's war with Hamas. The journalists note that in general, these are two different types of warfare and require different weapons.

Ukraine needs long-range missiles to strike Crimea, the article says, as well as armored vehicles to allow infantry to advance and demining equipment to clear huge minefields.

Israel needs smart bombs dropped from the air, including anti-bunker bombs, and interceptor missiles for the Iron Dome system, which are expended at a tremendous rate.

But there are also commonalities. Last year, the United States used its stockpile of shells in Israeli warehouses to arm Ukraine. In October, it had to redirect some of the shells that were supposed to be delivered to Ukraine to Israel. Both countries also use the Patriot missile defense system.

Ukraine's use of interceptor missiles is also likely to increase sharply in the winter, as Russia, which has been stockpiling missiles for months, is likely to resume attacks on Ukraine's energy system.

At the moment, the United States is likely to be able to meet the demands of both countries, the newspaper writes, but if one (or both) wars drag on, problems could arise.

"Over time, compromises will have to be made as some key systems will be diverted to Israel," writes Mark Kansian of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a think tank in Washington, D.C. "Some systems that Ukraine needs for a counteroffensive may not be available in the quantities that Kyiv had hoped for.

Background. In an interview with The Economist, the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine said that Ukraine needs the latest technologies to avoid a protracted war against Ukraine, as it cannot be won with outdated weapons and methods.