The United States is developing a new strategy for Ukraine - without liberating the occupied territories
The idea is to enable Ukraine to hold its ground on the battlefield
The US strategy to support Ukraine in 2024 will be defensive in nature. Washington will suggest that Kyiv focus not on recapturing the occupied territories but on repelling new Russian offensives.
Source. The Washington Post writes about this.
In the long run, this will strengthen both Ukraine's military power and economy, officials say.
The new strategy is the result of an unsuccessful counteroffensive by the Ukrainian Armed Forces and differs from last year's plans, which included training the Ukrainian military and supplying them with weapons to move forward quickly.
"Obviously, it's going to be difficult for them to organize the same kind of large-scale offensive on all fronts that they tried last year," said a US presidential administration official.
According to another interlocutor, the idea now is to allow Ukraine to hold its ground on the battlefield and to make sure that it becomes much stronger by the end of 2024.
However, this does not mean that the Ukrainians will simply build their own defense fortifications "and sit behind them" for a whole year, he emphasized. The new American document guarantees support for short-term military operations that will be able to deter Russian aggression.
"There will still be a struggle for control over small towns and villages with minimal strategic value, missile and drone launches from both sides," the official said, adding that the Ukrainian Armed Forces will also have to repel Russian attacks on civilian infrastructure.
The US and its allies want Kyiv to focus on long-range strike tactics, including the use of French Scalp cruise missiles, which will arrive within a few months, deterring the Russian Black Sea Fleet to protect sea transit from Ukrainian ports, and tying up Russian forces in Crimea through sabotage operations.
The strategy is being written with four phases in mind: fighting, building, restoring and reforming. The first phase requires artillery ammunition, replacement of lost equipment, and many more drones, said Eric Ciaramella, a former CIA intelligence analyst and senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace's Russia and Eurasia Program, who has advised administration officials.
Other milestones include commitments to security guarantees, specific pledges and programs to protect, restore, and expand Ukraine's industrial and export base, and help implement the political reforms necessary for full integration into Western institutions.
In addition, the plan includes the provision of additional air defense equipment to protect Ukrainian cities, which will allow the restoration of key sectors of the Ukrainian economy and exports, including metallurgy and agriculture.
The United States is going to present a new strategy in the spring, along with a ten-year commitment to security guarantees. The most important condition for the realization of these plans is the allocation of $61 billion by the Congress to finance Ukraine.
Background. As a reminder, the Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives has called the Ukraine Assistance Act "unpassable" so far. It was Trump who influenced the two parties not to reach an agreement on the issue of regulating the migration crisis.
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