The Great Water Effect: What the powerful flood brought to people and the economy

Ukraine has experienced the largest spring flood in the last 10 years, and in some regions, the water level is the highest in over 30 years.

The disaster affected nine provinces – Volyn, Dnipropetrovsk, Zhytomyr, Kyiv, Kirovograd, Rivne, Poltava, Cherkasy, and Chernigiv, the State Emergency Service says. More than 1,700 private households and 330 buildings were flooded, as well as about 21,000 hectares of agricultural land and gardens. Emergency workers predict that the peak of the flood will pass through Ukraine from April 18th to 28th.

Mind explored – what are the consequences of the great water for Ukraine, why proven protocols and control mechanisms failed, and in what the flood had even a positive economic effect, apart from the obvious losses and stress for rural and urban communities.

How rare is the phenomenon of spring floods for Ukraine? Since Ukraine is densely populated with rivers, the flood itself is part of the norm. But the question is in its scale.

The winter of 2022/2023 in Ukraine was mild and minimally snowy. So where did the additional volume of water come from? Indeed, the Ukrainian winter of 2022/2023 was not just moderate – it was one of the warmest in the last three decades, so there was no significant snow cover in the country itself.

However, it was formed higher up the Dnieper River – in russia and belarus. Also, during winter and early spring, there was a lot of rain, which led to a rise in groundwater levels. And as of April 15th, a rapid increase in water levels in water bodies was recorded in almost all regions of Ukraine.

Water even rose in the relatively waterless east of Ukraine – in the tributaries of the Siversky Donets River.

Where and what exactly has been flooded in Ukraine? According to the Hydrometeorological Centre, this spring seasonal increase in water level is observed within the rivers of the upper Dnieper, which include the Dnieper, Desna, Seym, Prypiat, Goryn, and also the Western Bug in the north-west. These are the areas of Kyiv, Cherkasy, Chernihiv oblasts, as well as Volyn and Rivne ones. People there have been fighting the elements for more than two weeks.

In addition, in early April, a dam of a local reservoir near Kramatorsk was destroyed, as a result of which nearby buildings were flooded.

Is the peak of the Great Water still ahead? It depends on the region.

The peak of the flood in Kyiv was expected on April 22nd-23rd. However, already on April 20th, Igor Syrota, Director-General of Ukrhydroenergo hydroelectric station operator, stated that the water level began to decrease. "For the second day in a row, a decrease in the inflow of floodwaters is observed. At a slow pace, but we see a 50-100 cubic metres per day slowdown in the inflow," he said.

As of today, Cherkasy and Chernigiv oblasts have largely left the "red" zone of flood risk. Instead, regions along the middle Dnieper are now in this zone, as water release through the Dnieper cascade of reservoirs has begun.

"Flooding of floodplain areas and partial flooding of riverbank areas will continue in a number of populated areas on the Kremenchuk, Kamyanske, and Dnipro reservoirs in Cherkasy, Poltava, Kirovograd, and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts. Initial flooding of floodplain areas along the Kakhovka Reservoir in a number of riverine populated areas in Zaporizhzhia Oblast is also possible, where an 'orange' level of danger is recorded," says the Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Centre in a statement.

Is there a human factor among the causes of large-scale flooding? Indirectly, yes, as human activity in various sectors provokes climate change, which in turn increases the level of extreme weather events.

Furthermore, the consequences of the flood could have been less severe if all construction regulations had been adhered to. According to Tetiana Tymochko, Head of the All-Ukrainian Environmental League, during a televised marathon, the severe consequences of the flood are due to "violations of the rules for using coastal strips, water protection zones, and floodplains." Spring 2023 has clearly demonstrated that the rule of building no closer than 100 metres from riverbeds has valid reasons for its existence.

In contrast, along the Dnieper and other rivers, there are hundreds of filled areas with buildings, both exclusive settlements and ordinary holiday cooperative developments. For example, the village of Kozyn near Kyiv, with dozens of luxurious villas on the sands of the Dnieper.

It is difficult to monitor what is happening with small and medium-sized rivers. They are blocked by artificial dams to create private fish ponds, diverted into new channels for watering private fields and setting up artificial lakes in private homes.

Volyn, Rivne, and Zhytomyr regions make a standalone issue. Local residents complain every day on all TV channels that there has not been anything like this in more than 50 years. Rural courtyards, all fields and pastures, gardens, roads, and almost the entire territory have been flooded there. Groundwater levels have risen, and nature has decided to remind us that all these areas are marshy lands.

Three decades of uncontrolled amber extraction, accompanied by the total deforestation, artificial pumping of water from small rivers and wells, and the destruction of fields and forests, have had their effect when a natural disaster struck. Much has been written about this, but no legal measures have been taken by the state to rectify the situation. It is unknown when the situation will improve.

Is there a responsible structure for the damage caused by the floods? Responsibility for the destructive consequences is rather vague. The full list of agencies that allowed or "turned a blind eye" to all violations includes the Ministry of Environmental Protection and Natural Resources, the State Water Agency of Ukraine, the State Agency of Forest Resources of Ukraine, the State Agency of Land Reclamation and Fisheries of Ukraine, the State Geocadastre, the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU), and local authorities.

Are there any mechanisms to prevent flooding at all? Overall, no sectoral institution can accurately predict the extent of floods and prevent large-scale flooding, unfortunately. In 2023, the water level began to rise in January, and in February, the so-called winter floods began on the Dnieper and Dniester rivers.

All processes take place following the instructions of the Cross-Agency Commission for the Coordination of Reservoir Operation Modes under the State Agency of Water Resources of Ukraine. According to Igor Syrota, by the morning of April 16, "by regulating water releases through hydroelectric power stations, the level of the Kyiv and Kaniv reservoirs has been reduced."

Why were these measures insufficient, and the floods still occurred? At least three reasons can be named why Ukrhydroenergo did not open all the dams and did not release excess water downstream of the Dnieper. Two of them were voiced by Roman Tkachuk, Head of the Civil Protection Department at Kyiv City State Administration.

First, due to the deliberate damage by russians to the lowest Dnieper-based Kakhovka HES, the entire cycle of technological processes for regulating reservoir levels and the operation of other HESs has been disrupted. A massive release of water could simply destroy the Kakhovka dam, resulting in a man-made disaster.

Second, Ukrainian HESs were prepared for blackouts and held large volumes of water in reservoirs to be able to supply Kyiv and other cities with electricity.

Third, in the current conditions, the plant operator tries to retain reservoirs to the maximum, as the most water will be needed in summer for domestic consumers, industry, and agriculture. Last year, summer in Europe was so hot that almost all major rivers on the continent dried up. In Italy, a state of emergency was declared due to the complete shallowing of the Po River. In Germany, all river transport on the Rhine stopped, and the Danube was nearly dry. Currently, in Spanish Catalonia, the highest heat and absence of precipitation are recorded, and water reserves are catastrophically disappearing.

What effect does high water have on hydropower? The winter flood, which turned into a spring flood, allowed Ukraine to balance the energy system: to abandon planned power outages for consumers and give the opportunity for thermal power generation to begin repairs on thermal power plants and combined heat and power plants, the infrastructure of which was damaged by 78% and 66% respectively. Today, all types of generation in Ukraine are operating thanks to the backup provided by Ukrhydroenergo.

The spring flood also became one of the factors that allowed Ukraine to resume electricity exports to Europe and attract additional funds to the energy sector.