Prolonged nosedive: How long will russian civil aviation last and what does it depend on?
In its attempts to retain the skies, the rf resorts to repairing aircraft in third countries and grey import of spare parts
A year ago, some experts predicted that russian aircraft would stop taking off within 6-9 months. However, these expectations proved to be premature. According to rosaviatsiya (the federal air transport agency), passenger traffic for 2022 amounted to 227.7 billion passenger-kilometres, only 6.4% lower than in 2021. Under sanctions, russia nationalised Western aircraft and now resorts to various grey schemes for their repair. In this way, russia plans to hold out until 2030, and then switch to a fleet of its own production.
Mind analysed which specific schemes the aggressor uses for the repair of foreign aircraft, who helps in this process, and whether russian planes will indeed be able to perform their flights for another seven years.
What sanctions were imposed on russian aviation? Following russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, our Western partners – the US, EU, UK, and several other countries – introduced restrictions on flights for russian airlines, aiming to isolate the aggressor and put economic pressure. In addition, the export of goods and technologies used in aviation and the space industry to russia was banned, as well as insuring and servicing aircraft.
Sanctions were also introduced by aircraft manufacturers – European Airbus and American Boeing stopped providing maintenance to russian airlines and supplying spare parts, limited access to the most important online manuals and documentation on troubleshooting, and the European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) suspended the licences of dozens of russian air carriers.
How did russia respond? The President of russia signed a law allowing russian airlines to operate foreign aircraft on lease without a foreign certificate. The aircraft were re-registered in russia. Foreign owners managed to reclaim only 80 of the 700 aircraft. The total amount of such "nationalisation" is estimated at $20 billion.
russian Minister of Transport, vitaliy savelyev, admitted that russia's decision not to return leased aircraft at the owners' request is theft. "They (the aircraft. – Mind) will not be serviced in the West, they won't even be allowed out because we have taken someone else's property," he said.
How large is russia's air fleet? In total, as of April last year, the air fleet comprised 1,101 passenger aircraft, of which 738 were of foreign manufacture (various types of Boeing and Airbus) and 359 were russian-produced (Yak-42, Sukhoi Superjet 100, and regional Il-114-300, An-26, An-24, An-38, Yak-40). The share of foreign aircraft in passenger commercial transport was 67.1%. At the same time, they accounted for 95% of passenger traffic. According to russian media, by the end of December 2022, the number of aircraft that could be used for passenger transport had decreased to 800 units.
Why is that? Under sanctions and without access to technical maintenance, russian airlines began to dismantle aircraft to provide spare parts. Airlines received such advice from their own government last June, and it was legalised in December. This phenomenon has been called "cannibalism", although rosaviatsiya is not very satisfied with such a crude term, claiming that the practice is normal worldwide.
What else does russia resort to? In March last year, rosaviatsiya issued a certificate to aeroflot's maintenance and repair provider for servicing Boeing and Airbus aircraft, realising that repairs would now have to be done in-house.
However, there was a problem with components. rosaviatsiya and the russian Ministry of Transport allowed the use of non-original parts for aircraft repairs. In addition, airlines use second-hand parts. But the cost of repairs has increased due to them being supplied via circuitous routes, using grey imports from "friendly" countries to russia. All of this, according to aviation expert Bogdan Dolintse, leads to a decrease in safety indicators and a higher cost of aircraft ownership for russia.
Another sanction evasion scheme is to repair aircraft at corresponding enterprises located in third countries. For example, last summer, russia signed an agreement with Iran to repair aircraft. And in April 2023, aeroflot announced that it sent an aircraft to Iran for repair for the first time in history.
"The wide-body Airbus A330-300 airliner with tail number RA – 73700 flew to Tehran, where the aircraft will be serviced by technical specialists of the largest Iranian carrier Mahan Air," the statement said. russia can also repair its aircraft in China and other Asian countries. However, it is currently difficult for experts to track the exact list of countries helping russia.
Have there already been any consequences? Yes, since last autumn, news of malfunctions in russian aircraft began to emerge. In November, the tyres of a Ural Airlines Airbus passenger plane burst upon landing in Irkutsk, a Nordwind Airlines Boeing had a cracked windshield, and in December, another Boeing from the same company, en route from saint petersburg to Goa, made an emergency landing due to gradual depressurisation in the cabin.
From January this year, incidents have become more frequent. One of the most common problems is the landing gear. In none of the cases was anyone injured, but the situations illustrate that the "well-being" of russian aviation has significantly deteriorated over the past year. "The state of russian aviation is assessed as dangerous by the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO). Now the first... not human, but technical factors have come into play. Parts and components of aircraft that are not properly maintained have started to fail," aviation expert Valeriy Romanenko comments.
Will russia have its own aircraft? Yes, it will. At least, that's what the russian government is counting on. By 2030, they plan to replace the foreign fleet with their own. For example, aeroflot has already ordered 339 russian liners. However, for the production of their own aircraft, russia used Western components. "Even if there is such an attempt, it will take from 5 to 10-12 years to completely replace Western components in russian technology," says Bogdan Dolintse.
Not only does the question arise of replacing Western components in the aircraft themselves but also of repairing the factories where they plan to produce them. russian military-industrial complex enterprises use a large amount of production equipment from the EU and the USA. "If they cannot maintain or repair the production equipment, then even the prospect of producing at least part of such aircraft by a conditional 2040 seems unrealistic," the expert adds.
What are the volumes of transport in russian airlines? russian airlines have abandoned flights to the US, Western Europe and allies, instead increasing the number of flights to Thailand, Turkey and the UAE, as well as Armenia, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. According to rosaviatsiya, the passenger traffic of carriers for 2022 amounted to 227.7 billion passenger-kilometres, which is only 6.4% lower than in 2021.
Can it be expected that russia will not be able to fly at all in the future? Probably, but there are nuances. The state of russian aviation is indeed deteriorating, and the repair and production of new and modern aircraft currently largely depend on Western components.
Since 2022, various expert assessments have suggested that russian aviation could survive until 2025. However, they were based on the idea that the imposed sanctions would be impossible or practically impossible to circumvent. In practice, we see a completely different picture.
This is related not only to individual countries but also to the aviation community as a whole. At the end of last year, ICAO advocated for the softening or even partial lifting of sanctions on russia, based on fears of more serious disasters. Such signals from the international aviation community encourage some countries to help russia bypass restrictions. Therefore, it can be said that the strength of the russian fleet now entirely depends on compliance with the sanctions policy by all participants in the global aviation community.
"Under such conditions, it is difficult to calculate the terms. If the screws aren't tightened, their planes may fly longer than until 2025. Maybe until 2028 or even 2030," Bogdan Dolintse summarises.
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