Recep Tayyip Erdoğan retains his presidential position in Turkey. What should Ukraine now expect?
The convincing victory of the incumbent with a margin of over 5 percentage points leaves no chance for the opposition to contest the results.
On May 28, the second round of the presidential election took place in Turkey. Verbal intrigue regarding its outcome was maintained to the very end, but de facto, the result was decided two weeks prior. Even at the peak of the fight in the first round, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan lacked only a fraction of a percent to win – his result was 49.5%, and his Presidential party Republican Alliance managed to retain the majority in the parliamentary elections that took place the same day, May 14. These results were a shock to the opposition and its leader, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, who garnered 44.8% of the votes.
How were the results counted? The count of the results on May 28 was again carried out in record time and in the presence of a maximum number of cross observers. In addition, a local tradition has developed in Turkey to gather at polling stations and observe the vote count – under such conditions, the possibility of falsification is reduced to absolute zero.
According to unofficial preliminary results published by the state agency Anadolu, with 99.45% of ballots counted, Erdoğan received 52.1% of the votes, and opposition leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu got 47.9%. Half an hour later, the head of Turkey's Central Election Commission announced Erdoğan's victory in the second round of the presidential elections.
Voter turnout was 85.41%.
Read also: 'Democracy Festival' in Turkey: Erdoğan and Kılıçdaroğlu Advance to the Second Round of Elections
How did Erdoğan react? Even before the announcement of the official results, Recep Erdoğan performed a symbolic lap of honour on the roof of his campaign bus and stated that "all citizens have won". Also, without waiting for the formal completion of the count, international congratulatory telegrams flew in – the leaders of Qatar, Libya, Algeria, and Hungary had already congratulated Erdoğan on his victory. The President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky, was not left out either. He unambiguously noted in his congratulatory message that Ukrainians "are counting on further strengthening of strategic partnership... and increasing cooperation for security and stability in Europe".
How did Kılıçdaroğlu's camp react to their opponent's victory? Representatives of the Turkish opposition did not comment on the result to the very end. When the defeat became apparent, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu called the current elections "one of the most unfair periods in the history of the country". He assured that he would continue his opposition activities.
Earlier on Twitter, Kılıçdaroğlu urged to show civic activism and vote: "My brother who hasn't voted yet, go to the ballot box, don't be lazy, get in the game. [Victory] is as close as a few minutes' walk from the future".
Opposition-oriented experts have stated that they do not consider the defeat "crushing", as there remains a critical mass of people in Turkey who are eager for change. Mehmet Karlı, an advisor to Kılıçdaroğlu, called Erdoğan's election victory pyrrhic. Indeed, along with the presidency, he also inherited the impending economic problems: rising prices, inflation, and increasing unemployment.
What does the continuation of Erdoğan's rule in Turkey mean for Ukraine? First and foremost, the preservation of the Istanbul Agreement and the opportunity to export grain through the Black Sea ports. Also, it will likely soon become clear what russia will receive in response to its unequivocal support for the former and future Turkish president. The grain agreement has been extended for two months, but its next update may take into account the demands of the russian federation, and Erdoğan may show himself as an advocate for vladimir putin's agrarian interests.
Read also: russians demand the reopening of the Togliatti-Odesa ammonia pipeline in exchange for the Grain Corridor prolongation. What is behind this and what is the threat to Ukraine
Earlier, Mind extensively analysed various scenarios for developments in Turkey in the event of a victory for one of the two candidates and Ukraine's prospects in this context:
Turkish rift: How will Erdoğan's victory or defeat in the presidential race affect Ukraine?
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