russians demand the reopening of the Togliatti-Odesa ammonia pipeline in exchange for the Grain Corridor prolongation. What is behind this and what is the threat to Ukraine

One of russia's main demands for the extension of the Grain Corridor from Ukraine is the resumption of russian mineral fertilisers to global markets. Over the past two to three months, we have managed to unblock fertiliser supplies from the ports of the Netherlands and Latvia. The fertilisers had been stored there for over a year and are now being delivered to the poorest countries in Africa as part of a UN charity programme. The total amount in question is around 500,000 tonnes.

However, this is not enough for moscow. At every negotiation, russian representatives demand that ammonia exports be resumed through the port of Odesa, or more specifically, through the Odesa Port Plant. This is a unique enterprise, combining two functions: it can simultaneously produce its own nitrogen mineral fertilisers from imported ammonia or natural gas and pump liquid ammonia from the Togliatti–Odesa ammonia pipeline into gas tankers. The transshipment capacity is 2.6 million tonnes of ammonia per year.

Mind decided to remind you how the ammonia "industry" is organised in russia, why the accusations by the aggressor country that Western countries are hindering its commercial interests are not true, and what risks may lie behind russia's insistence on resuming ammonia transportation and shipment on Ukrainian territory.

What, aside from grain, could be exported through the "humanitarian corridor"? Negotiations on the extension of the "grain corridor" began immediately after its signing on 22 July. The first ship left the Ukrainian port on 1 August , and in three months, 9 million tons of grain were exported from three ports – Odesa, Black Sea and Pivdennyi. However, Ukraine sees its mission to include the port of Mykolaiv in the "corridor", as well as to get permission to export not only grain, but also metal products.

Read also: The three in a boat excluding russia: Will Ukraine be able to export grain outside the collapsed Istanbul Agreement?

There are hundreds of thousands of tonnes of finished products and iron ore raw materials in port warehouses. If metal exports reached the pre-war level, Ukraine could receive an additional $600 million per month.

In early September, the kremlin leader putin publicly questioned the properness of the "grain deal" for the first time. He stated that it was being implemented unfairly, that russia was not allowed to sell its grain and fertilisers, and they were blocked in European ports. The same fate befell russian aluminium, by the way. The London stock exchange refused to trade it in the summer, then it was largely redirected to the South Korean Stock Exchange, and now all the storage facilities there are filled with it. But putin did not mention this fact.

What is wrong with russian fertiliser exports? With its cheap gas, russia is one of the largest exporters of ammonia and produces up to a third of ammonia fertilisers in the world. According to moscow, today 300,000 tonnes of fertilisers "hung" in western ports, meaning the ports of Latvia (Ventspils, about 80% of the existing volume. – Mind), Estonia, Belgium and the Netherlands.

However, in mid-September, the UN representatives in charge of the "grain deal" proposed Ukraine to "resume the transit and export of ammonia through the Togliatti-Odesa pipeline," arguing that this would add to the arguments for the prolongation of the "grain deal" and increase global fertiliser production at local plants in multiple countries.

On 16 September, there was an epic correspondence conversation between Kyiv and moscow. President Zelensky said he would agree to the operation of the ammonia pipeline if russia exchanged POWs "all for all." The kremlin refused, arguing that "people and ammonia are not the same thing." And a few days later, on 22 September, 215 our defenders returned to Ukraine, including the commanders of the famous Azov Regiment and the 36th Marine Brigade who defended the Azovstal plant.

Borrell made the statement in New York following an informal meeting of EU foreign ministers before the UN General Assembly.

Why is ammonia transit so important for russia? The Togliatti-Odessa ammonia pipeline is operated by Ukrtranskhimamiak State Enterprise. Its transshipment complexes are located on the same industrial site with the Odesa Port Plant. Ammonia is actually liquefied methane, so as early as 24 February, both enterprises began to mothball their capacities and then worried only about the safety of infrastructure. In September, at the suggestion of the UN, Volodymyr Zelensky and Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said that "Kyiv will not accept any agreement that contradicts its security interests."

Map of the Togliatti-Odesa ammonia pipeline through the territory of Ukraine

On 31 October, the troops of the invading country attacked the port infrastructure of Ochakiv, hitting the tugs of a grain barge and killing two people. That is, there are no guarantees that the shelling of ammonia enterprises in Odesa will not begin, and no one will provide them.

Interestingly, whose interests do the UN representatives push in launching the Togliatti–Odesa ammonia pipeline? After all, all the ammonia that goes through this pipe belongs to russian oligarch dmitriy mazepin. He owns Uralkhim, a group of companies producing mineral fertilisers, it is his mineral fertilisers that are now in the port of Ventspils (Latvia). In October 2021, having 9.7% of shares, he "nicked" TogliattiAzot from another oligarch – sergei makhlay, whose father vladimir, being the "red director", privatised the plant in the early 1990s.

What's the situation with the Togliatti-Odesa ammonia pipeline now? The Odesa Port Plant and the main ammonia pipeline were mothballed on 24 February 2022, immediately after the onset of russian aggression. As a result, russia's largest chemical plant, TogliattiAzot, also stopped working. This is a private enterprise whose shareholder, billionaire dmitriy mazepin, is under sanctions from Europe and the United States. But the russians have no choice.

For already eight years, they have been trying to build an alternative ammonia pipeline with access to the port of Novorossiysk. There are some successes, but... the port is too unreliable: there is a difficult coastal strip and open sea space that storms 300 days a year. It is simply dangerous to take chemical tankers out of there. At least the russians do not risk a major chemical disaster. Instead, Ukrainian Black Sea ports have very good conditions for handling any cargo and gentle shores for safe navigation.

What are the risks of launching the ammonia pipeline and transshipment at Odesa Plant? The ammonia pipeline is an extremely dangerous infrastructure system, which, moreover, runs very close to the current frontline. Any damage to the main pipe will lead to an environmental disaster. In addition, the launch of this pipe will give the kremlin an extra reason to demand "peace talks" on its own terms, or to blackmail Ukraine with a chemical accident.

There is another aspect. The Odesa Port Plant is currently being prepared for privatisation. But it is still unclear whether it will be sold together with the transshipment complex or separately. This issue has not been resolved for almost 20 years, since the first attempt to sell it.

Everything can be easily explained from a technical perspective: the liquid ammonia tank farm from the imported pipe and the plant's units, and a number of technological systems on the territory and in the port are integrated. This allows us to increase the efficiency of the very plant. Separating them would result in the loss of some capacity at both the plant's facilities and transshipment facilities at the port.

For 20 years, neither the Ukrainian government nor the management of the SPFU have come to an agreement on how to sell the plant. However, the existing dilemma serves as a "screen" for all political forces to use the plant for "milking  and kickbacks". And the current scandal with the former head of the SPFU, Dmytro Sennichenko, is just another fragment in the OPP's controversial history.

However, russia's demands to resume ammonia exports from the OPP may also be based on a certain interest in having the plant privatised by a company that is "understandable and reliable" for russia. There may be several layers of agreements in the negotiations. None of them has been publicly announced yet. But, given the way Ukraine is resisting russia's demands, they exist. And they are not in favour of Ukraine..