How russia creates new risks for Ukraine’s national security, attempting to regain its lost position in the EU gas market

The first half of June promised to be marked by a counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, launched after six months of preparation.The main event, however, became the tragedy at the Kakhovka Dam, which was blown up by russian terrorists. The consequences of it are yet to be evaluated, but the number of casualties is already estimated to be in the dozens, with damages amounting to billions of hryvnias, and the disaster has been preliminarily classified as ecocide and violations of laws and customs of war.

But it is also true that the long-awaited counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, despite the difficulties, has already begun, as indicated by President Volodymyr Zelensky's words. "russia's time is running out, in my opinion. Counteroffensive defensive actions are taking place. I won't go into detail about the stage," he said.

This comment from the head of state confirms what has been refuted by the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. From the perspective of information warfare, the military are acting logically by not giving the opponent clear signals. However, in any case, one should not expect a picture of an offensive resembling the style of the Second World War with massive artillery preparations and columns of hundreds of tanks in the current hybrid war. For the general public, the success of the Ukrainian army will most likely resemble a breakthrough of a dam when water, finding a weak spot, rushes through with its full force.

The main thing to understand about the major counteroffensive of the AFU is that it has started. The direction of the breakthrough has not been determined yet, but the nine brigades that have been trained and equipped over the past six months with Western assistance are ready to engage in battle. It will take a few weeks to responsibly assess their success. However, no one in their right mind expects to witness Ukrainian tanks moving like a wall towards the russian border in live broadcasts.

That's why Volodymyr Zelensky pointed out that unverified information should not be trusted when it comes to the Ukrainian counteroffensive. "We should trust our military. I trust them. I am in daily contact with our commanders in different directions. With Syrsky, Tarnavsky, Moskaliov, Nayev, Zaluzhny. They are all optimistic," he noted.

As for a large part of the russian leadership, as intercepted by Ukrainian intelligence, hope for their ground forces to even "liberate" Donbas has almost disappeared. Therefore, they are forced to resort to active information and psychological special operations (PSYOP) as a key component of the war. This creates additional risks for the national security of Ukraine, as russia is rightly considered one of the leading countries in the world in the use of PSYOP and agent operations, drawing on the vast experience of Soviet special services. The main goal is to sow discord among the top military leadership of Ukraine, significantly weaken the readiness of our army for the counteroffensive in the decisive phase of the war, and pressure the Ukrainian government into negotiations on their own terms.

Mind has gathered several examples that illustrate the variety of information attacks carried out by russian intelligence services on Ukraine with the involvement and help of leading Western media.

---

---

Mind has gathered several examples that illustrate the variety of information attacks carried out by russian intelligence services on Ukraine with the involvement and help of leading Western media.

Who blew up the Kakhovka Hydro Plant?

The Kakhovka Dam was significantly damaged during the fighting, months before its collapse. Ukrainian strikes damaged one section of the road above the dam, while russian forces later blew up another. Satellite images last month revealed uncontrolled water flow through some of the gates.

It led to speculation that the dam may have simply succumbed to accumulated damage, a version actively promoted by russia to evade responsibility.

However, multiple pieces of evidence reviewed by The New York Times confirmed otherwise: the dam collapse was not accidental. The catastrophic failure of the concrete foundation at its core did not occur on its own.

Moreover, in the latest investigation by the Associated Press, evidence has been gathered indicating that russia had the motive, opportunity, and necessary means to destroy the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant. Several days before the explosion at the dam, a russian vehicle with explosives was spotted.

However, the terrorist attack on the Kakhovka Dam did not prevent The Washington Post from stating that "it remains unclear how the breach of the dam in Nova Kakhovka occurred and who is responsible." These allegations prompted a response from renowned energy trader Pierre Anduran on his Twitter account. He has been supporting Ukraine since the beginning of the full-scale invasion and is confident that Europe can do without russian gas.

"What happened to @washingtonpost? Did russia buy it? Between blaming Ukraine for blowing up Nord Stream without any proof, and implying that Ukraine is as likely to have blown up the dam as russia. All on the same day. Shocking," he wrote.

Who blew up the Nord Streams?

Sabotage on the Nord Stream gas pipelines in the Baltic Sea, which resulted in partial destruction, has been prominently featured in the PSYOP of modern followers of Lavrentiy Beria in Moscow. Since the beginning of 2023, russian intelligence services, utilising their influence agents in the West, have been attempting to impose the belief on the global community that Ukrainian intelligence agencies are responsible for organising the pipeline bombings.

Leading media outlets such as BBC, CNN, The Washington Post, The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, and Süddeutsche Zeitung have become involved in promoting this narrative. Citing unnamed sources within the intelligence community, they continuously push anti-Ukrainian messages, disregarding basic fact-checking and information from Danish investigators that military exercises involving russian naval divers took place near the routes of the Nord Streams in the vicinity of Bornholm Island, where the explosives could have been planted.

The latest episode in this anti-Ukrainian 'series' was published in The Wall Street Journal on June 10.

The newspaper, citing "sources familiar with the investigation", reported about anonymous investigators from Germany who concluded that the perpetrators of the explosions on the Nord Streams may have used Poland as a logistics and funding centre for the attack. The Andromeda yacht, which is linked to the sabotage of the russian-German pipelines, was reportedly leased by the Ukrainian intelligence-affiliated travel agency Feeria Lwowa in Germany.

Is everything alright with the Ukrainian military leadership?

The latest public opinion survey conducted by the Ilko Kucheriv Democratic Initiatives Foundation (DIF) and the Razumkov Centre has shown that currently the most important role in Ukraine's defence capability is played by Volodymyr Zelensky (68%) and the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Valeriy Zaluzhny (47%). Therefore, it is not surprising that they are the primary targets of active operations by russian intelligence services. This has been the case since the beginning of the large-scale aggression, but since April of this year, the intensity of information-psychological operations and related disinformation campaigns against prominent state leaders has increased even further.

• Volodymyr Zelensky and his political team supposedly fear having a strong competitor in the upcoming presidential elections in the person of the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Valeriy Zaluzhny, and that is why the Presidential Office wants to remove him from his position.
• In the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the principle of unity of command has been lost due to a personal conflict between Valeriy Zaluzhny and the Commander of the Ground Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Oleksandr Syrsky, due to unhealthy ambitions and jealousy. Allegedly, their main focus is not the interests of the country, but high positions, power struggles, and creating their own image.
• Valeriy Zaluzhny, Oleksandr Syrsky, and Kyrylo Budanov do not appear at public events because they are either 'killed' or 'seriously wounded' by mercenaries from the Wagner Private Military Company (PMC), and the Ukrainian authorities want to conceal this 'fact'.
• The government works in the interests of oligarchs by raising electricity tariffs to take the last remaining funds from impoverished citizens (in reality, according to information from the Ministry of Energy of Ukraine, after the tariff increase starting from June 1, 2023, low-income individuals will not suffer due to receiving increased subsidies).
• russia has a huge mobilisation reserve and a powerful military-industrial complex and is capable of continuing the war for many years. Conversely, the EU, the United Kingdom, and the United States are tired of Ukraine and will soon cease their assistance. Therefore, the only way to end the war is to sit down at the negotiating table, taking into account the principle of realpolitik (i.e., leaving the occupied territories to russia).

What to do about gas transit?

After February 24, 2022, when the full-scale war began, russia has already implemented three stages of active operations against Ukraine. Now the aggressor is trying with all its might to move to the final phase in order to achieve the signing of a 'peace agreement' with Kyiv on its own terms.

In addition to the PSYOP, the attack is taking place through: creating maximum escalation on the front line, massive missile and drone attacks on major Ukrainian cities and energy infrastructure, and intimidation with nuclear threats. The kremlin also constantly presents its own proposals and invites Kyiv to sit down for negotiations through numerous intermediaries. The goal is to impose its own vision of 'normalcy' on the architecture of global security and the conditions of a 'peace plan' for ending the war in Ukraine, which aligns with the kremlin's interests.

These plans can also affect the energy security of the European continent, as the kremlin has not lost hope of increasing the flow of russian gas to the premium EU market. It was confirmed by Mikhail Galuzin, deputy minister of foreign affairs of rf. According to his statement, "Ukraine will cause great harm to the EU and shoot itself in the foot if it does not extend the gas transit agreement with russia after 2024 when its term expires."

However, Kyiv has no intention of negotiating on this matter, and the EU aims to completely eliminate russian gas by 2026, consistently implementing the REPowerEU plan.