Mutiny is over: Outcomes and Consequences of the wagner PMC Coup for russia and Ukraine

For over a day, a military uprising started by yevgeny prigozhin, the leader of wagner PMC, raged in russia. He deployed his 25,000-strong army against the russian ministry of defence, and later expanded his claims to encompass the entire leadership of the russian federation.

During the confrontation, the group managed to gain control of the million-strong city of Rostov-on-Don, establishing their stronghold at the headquarters of the southern military district, from where one coordinated military actions in Ukraine as well. Simultaneously, another column of wagner mercenaries, armed with the latest NATO standards, advanced towards the capital, successfully repelling attacks by the russian national guard, although these were not particularly massive. The Fighterbomber channel reported that four helicopters and an Il-22 transport aircraft were shot down, resulting in the deaths of 13 pilots. These were the highest daily losses suffered by russian aviation throughout the entire full-scale war.

Additionally, due to explosions, road infrastructure was damaged, private vehicles were affected, trenches were deftly dug on the approaches to moscow, bridges were blown up, and an oil depot caught fire in voronezh. Regarding the latter incident, there were speculations that it was a case of plain looting of petroleum products disguised as a force majeure event.

The uprising ceased by 17:00 on Saturday, June 24, when the wagner mercenaries, having passed through voronezh and lipetsk, were already in the moscow oblast.

Negotiations with prigozhin were conducted by the self-proclaimed belarusian president alexander lukashenko. According to his press service, the talks lasted the entire day. yevgeny prigozhin confirmed that he was withdrawing his columns and left the headquarters of the southern military district at midnight. His car was applauded by the residents of the city. However, policemen who were not involved in the confrontation with the wagner mercenaries and later returned to the city after the situation stabilised, were greeted with cries of "Shame!"

The essence of the agreements reached between the authorities and prigozhin can be summed up in the phrase "Life and immunity in exchange for exiting the political and military arena". Wagner fighters will go to 'field camps', and those who did not join the uprising may sign contracts with the ministry of defence. They will not be persecuted due to their "combat merits on the front lines".

No one will be held accountable for the killed pilots. However, there is already information that the destroyed aircraft transport is fake.

yevgeny prigozhin went to Belarus, where he was given guarantees of safety. The criminal case against prigozhin for the "armed uprising" opened on Saturday morning was closed within a few hours.

According to dmitry peskov, putin's press secretary, personnel changes in the ministry of defense were not discussed, although the coup was directed against minister sergey shoigu from the very beginning.

Mind looked into the consequences of this era for russia and how it would affect the situation around Ukraine.

First and foremost – who emerged victorious? The logical answer is that it resulted in a draw. However, if we look at the broader picture, everyone lost, although the wagner mercenaries and their leader – slightly less so.

No one seriously believes that prigozhin's goal was to capture the kremlin and remove central russian authority. He fought to elevate his status and gain support in the confrontation with the military bloc – sergey Shoigu and chief of the general staff valery gerasimov. After the russian ministry of defence's order came into effect, requiring all volunteers to sign a contract with the army, the days of the Private Military Company (PMC) in its current form would have been numbered, and the fate of its founder did not inspire optimism.

As for the russian leadership, after the unequivocal message in the morning of June 24, clearly declaring the intention to ruthlessly suppress rebellions, choosing the path of negotiations and allowing conscripts to go unpunished signifies putin's defeat.

Undoubtedly, alexander lukashenko appears to be the ultimate winner, as he suddenly transformed from a satellite of the russian top leadership into a strategist and high-level negotiator. Even if it is true that real negotiations were conducted at the level of the security forces, including alexey rubezhnoy, the head of putin's personal security service, lukashenko still receives all the laurels.

Did the coup have a chance of success, assuming that the real goal was a change of power in russia and not just the triumph of how quickly they managed to approach moscow? It depends on whether the army (and in what quantity) would have sided with the wagnerites. Otherwise, the column, even if it reached moscow, would have got bogged down in street fights and been destroyed.

The scenario where the army (but not the military leadership) could join the rebels is quite plausible, as it has happened multiple times throughout history.

In the event of victory, an argument for the West to initiate negotiations with prigozhin or another leader of the coup would have been his access to nuclear weapons.

What will happen to the wagner and prigozhin personally? There are several options:

• belarus could become a new base for the PMC. Otherwise, the connections between the fighters and their leader may be severed while he is in another country. He will gather strength and, when the russian military leadership makes a mistake, he may return.
• prigozhin could obtain an official position in belarus, legitimising himself in this way. It is a fantastic version, the justification for which lies in the almost 20-year acquaintance between the leader of wagner and alexander lukashenko.
• Elimination of prigozhin.
• Marginalisation and transformation into a powerless 'fallen pilot', another 'girkin who whines'.

What are the consequences for russia? Even if one considers that it avoided a civil war and vivid footage of street battles in the suburbs of moscow, the country has suffered a powerful blow. Therefore, there are several undeniable outcomes.

• Entire russia and the whole world witnessed that a determined group of armed individuals can march hundreds of kilometres to moscow and force the president to negotiate with them. In other words, the president effectively held talks with terrorists.
• Panic and the escape of the elites were documented – private jets of officials and their families were leaving russia throughout the day.
• Citizens realised the consequences of the war in Ukraine, which could personally affect them – tanks in the streets, explosions, queues at petrol stations, panic, and the surrender without resistance of rostov and voronezh. It also became evident how quickly the situation can change from stability to chaos – literally within a day.
• Phrases about the "evil brought by the military leadership of the country", "fleeing cowardly like a woman", and "Ukraine had no intention of attacking" echoed worldwide.
• The federal security service of the russian federation is unlikely to be pleased that they were forced to retreat after being given carte blanche.
• Propagandists like margarita simonyan did not demonstrate unconditional loyalty – they were waiting. Only ksenia sobchak publicly supported the government.
• Since the authorities suffered a significant blow to their image and were publicly humiliated, the kremlin will have to restore its authority through harsh actions both domestically and internationally. For russia, this means further tightening screws, purges, and paranoia, especially considering the assumption that prigozhin had allies in the upper echelons of power – in other words, a return to 1937. At the external level, this will require tough measures and dramatic gestures, primarily in Ukraine.

What are the consequences of the coup attempt for Ukraine? The assumption that an illusory victory by wagner mercenaries would have ended the war – whether on the positions of 1991 or any other – does not withstand any criticism. In prigozhin's rhetoric, there were no messages about the need to conclude hostilities, only complaints that they were being conducted inefficiently. If the wagnerites had obtained the full command, the war would have continued regardless of any rules or the official power structure.

Any actions on the enemy's territory that destabilise it are unequivocally seen as positive, and the subsequent repressions following the coup attempt can only strengthen this effect.