ISW considers the likelihood of a russian-belarusian offensive on the north of Ukraine to be low

What happened? The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) considers the probability of a russian offensive on the north of Ukraine from the territory of belarus to be low, despite the statement of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine about the increased threat.

Source. The report of the ISW.

Details. General Oleksiy Hromov, the representative of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, said the day before that russian troops might attack the north-west of Ukraine in order to cut off supply lines from Western partner countries. The ISW called it unlikely in the coming months, as the russians “cannot interdict Ukrainian supply lines from the West with a ground offensive.”

According to the Institute, the nearest Ukrainian east-west railway is 30 km from the belarusian border, and the Pripiat Marshes in northern Ukraine and belarus make maneuver warfare across the international border in Volyn and Rivne oblasts extremely difficult. 

“Ukraine’s road and rail network has sufficient nodes with Poland, Romania, Slovakia, and Hungary that a russian incursion from belarus could not seriously degrade Ukrainian logistical lines,” the report explains.

U.S. National Security Council Spokesperson John Kirby emphasises that belarus may concentrate manpower on the border to fix Ukrainian forces in northern Ukraine and prevent their deployment to the active area of operation in southern and eastern Ukraine.

Previously. The threat of resumption of the offensive by the Armed Forces of the russian federation on the northern front is growing. This time, the direction of the offensive may be changed to the west of the belarusian-Ukrainian border.