ISW: Ukrainian Armed Forces can cross the Dnieper River, and russians will not be able to stop them
russian forces expect Ukrainian troops to take Kinburn Spit
The American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has published a daily report analysing the picture of military operations in Ukraine on Monday morning.
Details. “russian forces are establishing the defensive positions in eastern Kherson Oblast and those positions point at russian expectations for future operations in this area,” the report says.
The experts concluded that the russian command is well aware that the Ukrainian Armed Forces can cross the Dnieper River at any moment and continue the counteroffensive on the left bank of the river, in the eastern part of Kherson Oblast.
“russian troops are preparing either to defend in depth or to conduct operational or strategic delay operations. russian forces clearly do not expect to be able to prevent Ukrainian forces from getting across the river, nor are the russians prioritising defensive positions to stop such a crossing. The russian military is setting conditions for a protracted defense in eastern Kherson Oblast that could allow the establishment of a solid Ukrainian lodgment on the eastern bank of the Dnieper River.”
Moreover, the authors of the report add that russian forces have no illusions about their capabilities and “clearly do not expect to be able to prevent Ukrainian forces from getting across the river”, and therefore do not even make any efforts to try to stop the crossing.
“The russian fortifications on and around the Kinburn Spit suggests that russian forces do not expect to maintain positions on the spit itself if Ukrainian forces launch a counterattack against the spit; rather, russian forces very likely expect Ukrainian forces to take the Kinburn Spit but intend to prevent them from advancing to mainland Kherson Oblast,” the report states.
Considering the options for further development of events, the authors emphasise that all the above scenarios are theoretical statements, and they are not intended to “determine whether Ukrainian forces intend to force the Dnieper River” or to predict whether the Armed Forces will make such an attempt.
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