Ukrainian forces land on the left bank of Kherson Oblast – ISW

The Ukrainian Armed Forces may have launched a counter-offensive, taking up positions on the left bank of the Dnipro River in Kherson Oblast, with the enemy holding defences in Oleshky and Nova Kakhovka.

This is stated in a report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

According to the Institute, russian "milbloggers" have provided enough geo-referenced video footage and text messages to confirm that Ukrainian forces have taken up positions on the east bank of Kherson Oblast.

"Geolocated footage published by a russian milblogger on April 22 shows that Ukrainian forces have established positions on the Dnieper River bank north of Oleshky (7km southwest of Kherson City) and advanced up to the northern outskirts of the settlement on the E97 highway, as well as west of Dachi (10km south of Kherson City)," the report says.

It is noted that the footage also suggests that russian troops may not control the islands on the Konka and Chayka rivers, located less than half a kilometre north of the Ukrainian military's geolocation positions near the Antonivka Road Bridge.

Western analysts note that on 20 and 22 April, russian "milbloggers" claimed that Ukrainian forces had been holding positions on the east bank of Kherson Oblast for several weeks, had established stable supply lines to those positions and were regularly making sorties, suggesting that russian control of the area was not in place.

In addition, the ISW notes that a battle map by another russian blogger claims that russian forces do not control some islands in the Dnieper Delta southwest of Kherson, suggesting that Ukrainian forces may be advancing to these islands.

Analysts also note complaints by some russian "milbloggers" that low intensity artillery fire due to the excessive centralisation of the enemy military command allowed Ukrainian troops to land on the east bank.

"russian forces may be prioritising maintaining defences in urban areas such as Oleshky and Nova Kakhovka, leaving the islands in the Dnieper River delta unmanned. The extent and intent of these Ukrainian positions remain unclear, as does Ukraine’s ability and willingness to maintain sustained positions in this area," the Institute notes.

Besides, the ISW stresses that it is the first time that it recognises the territory on the east bank of the Dnieper River in Kherson Oblast as controlled by Ukraine, as it has only now received reliable geolocation images of Ukrainian positions on the eastern bank, as well as russian reports from various sources about the continued Ukrainian presence in this area.