Oil prices fell to their lowest level in three months due to a decline in supplies from China and rising US stocks
Prices are further pressured by declining global oil reserves and the risk of supply disruptions
On November 8, prices for January Brent and December WTI futures hit their lowest levels since July 24 and July 21, respectively. As of 13:20, Brent prices were below $81 per barrel, and WTI prices were below $77 per barrel.
Oil of the main grades has been falling in price since November 3. Several factors put pressure on the quotes:
- statistics on exports from China,
- data on crude oil reserves in the United States, published by the American Petroleum Institute (API),
- and the U.S. Department of Energy's (EIA) forecasts for the energy market.
According to the General Administration of Customs of China, the volume of Chinese exports in October fell by 6.4% year-on-year, 2.1% more than analysts expected (the consensus forecast of experts was cited by Trading Economics) and at a faster pace than in September (when the decline was 6.2% year-on-year). Exports have been falling for six months in a row amid weak overseas demand for Chinese goods.
Last week, crude oil stocks in the United States increased by almost 12 million barrels after rising by 1.3 million barrels a week earlier. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA, a division of the Department of Energy) has postponed the publication of weekly inventory data until November 13, noting that production will grow slightly less than expected and demand will decline.
The US Department of Energy has lowered its forecast for the price of Brent crude oil for 2023 from $84.09 to $83.99 per barrel, and also lowered its estimate of the cost of Brent for 2023 from $94.91 per barrel to $93.24 per barrel.
According to the agency's calculations, the average spot price of Brent in October decreased by $3 over the month to $91 per barrel. The IEA cited a decline in global inventories, risks of supply disruptions, and the impact of voluntary production cuts by a number of OPEC+ countries as factors putting pressure on prices.
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