WTO Director-General: trade growth forecast for 2024 no longer seems so optimistic
The reason was disruptions in shipping in the Red Sea and Suez Canal
The head of the World Trade Organization has warned during a discussion at WEF-2024 in Davos that trade growth may be weaker than expected this year.
Speaking at a panel on trade and investment, Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala explained that the WTO is a little less optimistic than it was due to disruptions in shipping in the Red Sea, which led to ships avoiding the Suez Canal, as well as drought and shallowing of the Panama Canal.
The WTO predicted that trade growth would rise to 3.3% this year, up from just 0.8% in 2023.
But Okonjo-Iweala says that uncertainty and lower global growth will hit trade. This makes the WTO's forecasts "a little less optimistic" about reaching the 3.3% figure.
"I think the real numbers will be lower than that," she says.
The WTO forecasts are currently being revised, so she does not have new figures yet. However, even if there is a reduction, the growth will still be higher than last year, Okonjo-Iweala notes.
She also says that there are "bright spots" in global trade, including digital trade and green trade, which have tripled in the last two decades.
"Yes, we are worried about negative factors, but trade is very resilient, and we are optimistic that we will be able to restore the overall bright trends," the WTO chief is convinced.
Background. As reported, Ukrainian agricultural exports are changing logistics due to the campaign against the Houthis. This increases the cost of delivery and exacerbates the issue of insurance support.
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