Analyst: if aid to Ukraine is not urgently increased, the Ukrainian Armed Forces may lose the ability to hold the front by summer
Russia will reach the limit of its capabilities by 2025, but it is important not to let it win before then
Dara Massicotte, a well-known military analyst and specialist on the Russian army at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, published an article in Foreign Affairs magazine titled "Time is Running Out in Ukraine".
"Without more Western military aid and a major shift in Kyiv's strategy, Ukraine's battlefield situation will continue to deteriorate until it reaches a tipping point, possibly by summer," Massicotte writes. "With Ukraine's ammunition and manpower needs not being met, Ukrainian units will begin to deplete, which could turn Russian breakthroughs into a real possibility.
She emphasises that now is not the time for despair, but for urgent action.
"Russian troops have vulnerabilities that can be exploited and advantages that can be reduced over time, but only if Ukraine gets what it needs now."
Russia has a limit to the number of people it can mobilise and the amount of equipment and ammunition it can produce. This limit can be reached by 2025, Massicotte believes. But if the frontline collapses sooner, this year, none of this will matter.
She calls for three difficult and unpopular things to be done urgently: a new mobilisation in Ukraine, a sharp increase in ammunition supplies from the West (including the US), and the acceleration of the construction of new defence lines.
Background. Meanwhile, the NYT wrote that the US is unhappy with Ukraine's military strategy. Ukrainians are frustrated by the delay in US aid, and the Pentagon wants Kyiv to listen to American advice on how to fight.
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