Russians are preparing a new offensive in the summer of 2024 - ISW report
Recently, the Armed Forces of Ukraine managed to slow down the occupiers' advance west of Avdiivka
The Russian invaders are likely to continue their offensive to destabilise Ukrainian defence lines in the spring of 2024, while simultaneously preparing for a projected new offensive this summer.
Source. This is stated in a report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) on 15 March.
"Western security assistance is likely to play a crucial role in Ukraine's ability to hold territory now and repel new Russian offensives in the coming months. Russian troops are trying to maintain the pace of offensive operations in eastern Ukraine to prevent Ukrainian forces from stabilising their defensive lines. Russian forces are particularly focused on pushing as far west of Avdiivka as possible before Ukrainian forces can establish a more impenetrable line in the area," the experts say.
At the same time, it is noted that the Ukrainian Armed Forces have recently managed to slow down the occupiers' advance west of Avdiivka, but the lack of ammunition caused by the delay in Western security assistance is forcing the Ukrainian military to prioritise critical frontline areas, while increasing the risk of an enemy breakthrough in other, less supplied areas.
"Russian forces will continue to take advantage of the initiative across the theatre to dynamically shift the balance of their offensive efforts this spring and summer, likely in the hope of exploiting possible Ukrainian vulnerabilities," ISW said.
It is noted that the design and plan of the enemy offensive in the summer of 2024 is not immediately clear and probably will not be clear until the occupiers launch it, but the Russian military command probably intends to use any successes achieved in the coming weeks, as well as forecasts that the Ukrainian Armed Forces may be even less well supplied this summer than they are now.
"Well-supplied Ukrainian troops have shown that they can prevent Russian forces from achieving even minor gains during a large-scale Russian offensive, and there is no reason to doubt that Ukraine can further stabilise the front line and prepare to repel a declared Russian offensive this summer if the shortage of materiel is alleviated," the report says.
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