ISW: Russian offensive in Kharkiv region may be a distraction
Experts do not rule out the possibility that Russia is now creating conditions for a large-scale offensive on Kharkiv later
The American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) in its daily review comments on reports of a Russian offensive in the north of Kharkiv region near the border with Russia, which began early on Friday morning.
The authors of the report call this the initial phase of the offensive. On the one hand, it may have only operational goals, but on the other hand, it may have a strategic effect, which is an attempt to draw Ukraine's forces away from critical areas of the front.
The Russian army conducted two limited operations – north of Kharkiv towards Liptsi and northeast of Kharkiv near Vovchansk.
The day before, the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported that "counter-attack measures" were continuing near these two settlements after an attempt to break through the defence line near Vovchansk under the cover of armoured vehicles.
Analysing various reports, ISW states that fierce fighting was likely taking place in the four villages, and Russian troops captured three of them as they advanced towards Vovchansk.
Experts predict that the Russian military will use the tactical foothold to push Ukrainian forces back from the border with Belgorod Oblast, advancing to within cannon artillery range.
Western and Ukrainian media reported on Friday that Russia's goal is to create a 10-kilometre buffer zone along the northern border in Kharkiv region. This will not only protect border settlements in Russia from artillery shelling, but also make Kharkiv accessible to Russian artillery, ISW said.
Experts do not rule out the possibility that Russia is now creating the conditions for a large-scale offensive on Kharkiv later. However, they do not yet see the conditions for it, according to the report, and consider the version of a diversionary operation to be equally likely.
The available footage of the fighting suggests that Russian troops used relatively limited personnel and armoured vehicles, the analysts write. However, they admit the presence of reserves that are ready to develop offensive operations north of Kharkiv in the coming days.
Background. Meanwhile, the United States reportedly expects Russia to intensify its offensive in Ukraine, but is confident in Kyiv's capabilities and doubts that Moscow will achieve serious success on the battlefield, White House spokesman John Kirby said.
If you have read this article to the end, we hope that means it was useful for you.
We work to ensure that our journalistic and analytical work is of high quality, and we strive to perform it as competently as possible. This also requires financial independence. Support us for only UAH 196 per month.
Become a Mind subscriber for just USD 5 per month and support the development of independent business journalism!
You can unsubscribe at any time in your LIQPAY account or by sending us an email: [email protected]
