Gabrielius Landsbergis: “Negotiations under these circumstances would be a capitulation and betrayal of Ukraine”

The former Lithuanian Foreign Minister and a great friend of Ukraine, Gabrielius Landsbergis, who is currently writing a book about Russia’s war against Ukraine, told the Italian media Linkiesta in an interview why he considers it a bad idea to incline Ukraine to negotiations with Russia, and how to make Putin want to go to peace talks himself.

The main theses from the interview:

The policy of “appeasement” of the aggressor, widespread among Western European countries

There are several reasons for this. Many people are convinced that there is a Russian culture besides the Putin’s regime, and that we need to keep ties with this part of Russia. There are also economic reasons, let's say pragmatic ones, up to the corruption of some officials, which creates a danger. We are experiencing the biggest geopolitical crisis on the continent since the Second World War, and we know that Russia does not intend to stop at Ukraine. But this message, which seems obvious to Ukrainians and the Baltic states, becomes increasingly blurred as we move west and south.

How to counter Russian propaganda in the West

In Eastern Europe, there is a different sense of danger. Our history has taught us this, and our geography reminds us of it every day. We Lithuanians have lived under Russian pressure for decades after we regained our independence. Moscow has always been present with its influences in our election campaign. And when such things started happening in France and other countries, we had 20 years of experience in this matter: it means that our institutions are ready to confront the Russian threat. That is why we can explain to Western Europe how it works.

The 1938 scenario for Ukraine

For the last three years, we’ve had the feeling that we are living in one of those eras in which the pages of history are being written and something significant is happening almost every day. Everything could turn out according to the worst possible scenario, that is, one in which Ukraine is tired, Russia is making progress on the battlefield, and the West can force Kyiv to negotiate against its interests. Simply saying, look at Czechoslovakia in 1938, and you will see exactly the same situation.

About the possibility of negotiations between Ukraine and Russia in the near future

If the situation remains as it is now, there is no question of it: negotiations now would be a capitulation and betrayal of Ukraine. The only way out of this situation is to ask ourselves whether we can create the conditions for Russia to want to negotiate after it realizes it cannot win. We need Moscow to think: “Russia needs negotiations because our economy is weak, European support for Ukraine is too strong, and we are about to lose the war, so it is better to negotiate.” But to get Russia to do that, we need to provide enormous support to Ukraine, much more than we have provided so far.

About the ceasefire

We need very clear security guarantees for Ukraine. History helps us here. If we establish a ceasefire now, Putin simply will not respect it, as he did in the past: you don’t need a doctorate in history to read the 2014 (Minsk) agreements and how Ukraine was forced to negotiate. But what did that peace lead to? Nothing, just another war. Why should we expect different results this time?

On European unity in the confrontation with Russia

First, everything must start with Ukraine. Our security is inseparable from Ukraine's security. If Kyiv is not safe, then Europe is not safe either. We must restore the spirit that we saw in the joint fight against the pandemic. Then, in 2020, all of Europe agreed that the way the EU functions should be rethought, including at the economic level. There, we changed the rules, we managed to allocate 750 billion euros to help countries overcome Covid problems. We did this because there was a crisis situation. Now, when war is on the verge, we must first agree that we are all in another crisis situation.

What will change with the arrival of Trump for Ukraine and for the West

We must ask ourselves what crisis we need to truly wake up. Do we need an even bigger war, a war that will test the integrity of NATO? Trump's election should indicate significant changes on the defense front. Some countries that are already preparing to cooperate with the new US administration are thinking about how to find a common language and some unity of purpose where possible. But I am not entirely sure that this (Trump’s coming back) will be a wake-up call.

On the weakness of democracy in the face of autocracy

Somehow we got used to the idea that we are too weak to resist a more aggressive regime. But in reality this is not so. A democratic system is a state that has money, the ability to innovate, knowledge, international agreements on protection, legal systems that are healthier than others, governments that are based on the trust of citizens. However, over the past three years we have allowed ourselves to be convinced by Putin’s narrative that Ukraine is destined to lose, the West is divided, and NATO does not exist. And this is not because Putin is so strong, but because we think we are weak. And if we let ourselves believe that, then yes, autocracies can win. But I am absolutely sure that we can change this.

On the relations between Lithuania and Ukraine

The compassion that we have for Ukrainians is rarely found in other parts of the world. I can say that the Ukrainian heart beats in Lithuania too: if Ukrainians are sad, Lithuanians are sad, if Ukrainians are happy, Lithuanians are happy. I know that this may seem strange, but this is actually the case in our country.

Plans for the future

I am working on a book – a diary that I have kept since the beginning of the war. And as a former minister of a front-line country, I think there are some interesting ideas here. I feel the need to continue talking about what I think is important, and I want to remain active on the international political front as an independent voice. Because in all this background noise, those who fight for freedom and democracy need help. And if I can help them with that, I will continue to do so.