The termination of Western military assistance could lead to a loss of Ukraine's ability to deter the Russian army, which would then advance to the country's western borders and occupy its territory.
Source. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) writes about this in a new report.
In such a scenario, Russia will open military bases on the borders of Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, and Romania. Moscow will also increase its military presence in Belarus by deploying two divisions – airborne troops and motorized riflemen – in the southwest and north of the country. This will allow Russia to create conditions for a rapid offensive against one or more NATO countries, ISW experts believe.
The Russian troops deployed on the borders of the military alliance will be covered by a dense air defense network that will cover the Baltic states, Moldova, as well as a large part of Poland, Romania, and Slovakia.
In this situation, the United States will not be able to quickly deploy the necessary amount of forces and equipment to Europe to guarantee the full security of NATO partners. Moreover, assistance to European countries will reduce the ability of the United States to respond effectively to China's potential aggression against Taiwan. Therefore, Washington will have to choose between Europe and Taiwan, according to ISW analysts.
In their opinion, as a result, the United States may find itself in a position for some time when it will not be able to fully confront either Russia or China.
At the same time, military experts suggest another scenario – a complete victory for Ukraine and a return to the 1991 borders. In this case, the current threats to NATO would be reduced. In particular, Russian aviation will no longer threaten the southeastern flank of the alliance, the Black Sea will become NATO's "inland lake," and the closest Russian troops to Romania will be at a distance of almost 800 kilometers.
In such a scenario, Russian troops in Belarus would be surrounded by the forces of the Alliance and an independent Ukraine. The Baltic states and the northeastern part of Poland will be more protected than in the scenario with the full occupation of Ukraine by the Russian army.
Based on this analysis, ISW military experts emphasize that it is more profitable for Washington to help Ukraine now rather than wait until it is completely captured by Russia.
Meanwhile, Russian dictator Putin expects to continue the war in Ukraine until 2026 and capture most of Zaporizhzhia, Dnipro and Kharkiv regions, German newspaper Bild wrote, citing a source in Western intelligence. In order to achieve this goal, Putin is ready to lose up to 100,000 troops in Ukraine every year.