Ukrainian military officer explains how much the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the front depend on American aid

A military officer of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, drone operator Yegor Firsov gave his assessment of the growing tension between the United States and Ukraine and how the probable termination of American aid to Ukraine could affect the battlefield and, in general, Ukraine's chances of surviving the Russian invasion.

Firsov believes that a complete stoppage of arms supplies from the United States will not lead to the instant collapse of Ukraine, but at the same time outlined the sectors in which US aid is critically important.

"Starlink. If it goes down, problems will begin instantly: infantry in strongpoints, intelligence, drone crews, artillerymen, headquarters in brigades and battalions... – everyone uses Starlink. If it is turned off, the disorganization of control may begin in the first hour. In addition, some drones that work exclusively with the help of satellites may fail,” he wrote on Facebook.

“We must be ready for this. And to work on an alternative communication. For example, the enemy created an alternative connection – these are WiFi bridges – wide Wi-Fi where you can connect to the Internet,” the military described, urging to hurry, because “problems can start very unexpectedly.”

The second thing that Ukraine is significantly dependent on the United States for is air defense, Patriot systems and shells for them.

“We must urgently look for alternatives: both supplies and the systems themselves. Otherwise, Ukrainian cities will be defenseless. This point should be one of the first in negotiations with Europe,” he emphasized.

Among the good news, he stressed the fact that 80% of strikes on the front are carried out by drones, and these drones are mostly not from the United States.

“Initially, the drones were Chinese. Now there are FPVs that are almost completely (along with components!) produced in Ukraine,” the defender noted.

“The use of artillery has now decreased tenfold compared to the barrage that was in 2022. Even from the enemy side. Artillery systems are worn out, there are much fewer shells, they are not accurate. Artillery is now used for important, but narrow, specific tasks,” he explained.

“HIMARS or the Howitzer “777” have long been no longer the kings of the front. The drone reigns at the front,” Firsov emphasized.

He reported that the effectiveness of HIMARS has significantly decreased.

HIMARS

“Unfortunately, the enemy has found ways to spoof our shots by changing the coordinates. Missiles are arriving, but don’t hit the target. I don’t know if the Americans realize this, but this is the bitter truth – complexes that cost hundreds of millions of dollars sometimes do not bring adequate results. They had to actively destroy everything in the first year of the war. But at that time the number of shells was limited for us. The time of significant opportunities was lost,” Firsov analyzes.

According to him, the Javelin ATGM has now ceased to be the weapon that is decisive on the battlefield.

“If there are several effective hits of Javelin throughout the frontline per month, then that is good. For comparison, drones make more than 10 thousand verified hits per month,” he compared.

Firsov claims that another important area is US military intelligence, which is unlikely to be replaced by European allies.

He added that the US finances many more programs – such as training, un-military programs.

"However, if it suddenly happens," Firsov suggests, "that we are left without US support, then know that we, the Ukrainian people, have come a long way over the years and done a lot. And, fortunately, in military terms, we have become much less dependent on partners."

"Without US support, it will be difficult for us. The war will not "end in 24 hours," Ukraine will pay a higher price for peace in Europe than it could have. Let it be the responsibility of specific politicians, not the American people. But we will be able to survive. If we are together. Like in the first days," the serviceman concluded.

Background. Speaker of the House of Representatives Johnson stated that he "has no appetite" to accept new aid packages to Ukraine. He added that he does not foresee additional assistance if the war lasts for several more months.

The day before, it became known that some US companies have suspended arms sales to Ukraine – the deputy Kostenko said. "They are waiting for political decisions," the deputy noted.