wagner's workaday life: What prigozhin’s military group was left with

For several months in a row, after the failed march on moscow by the wagner  private military company and its unsuccessful coup, discussions have been ongoing about the future of prigozhin's charges. Сurrently, they are known to have been settled in the territory of belarus and, as military analysts suggest, they might carry out provocations on the borders of Ukraine and Poland. On the other hand, British intelligence supposes that prigozhin`s mercenaries are unlikely to be financed by moscow; this concern has now been shifted onto the shoulders of the belarusian authorities. Such a situation is unlikely to instil confidence in this military group of the terrorist country. Nonetheless, several thousand militants are currently situated nearby, including along the Ukrainian borders. Ukraine plans to further fortify its borders – the government has allocated over 1.2 billion UAH from the reserve fund of the state budget for this purpose. Is there a threat to Ukraine and Poland due to the presence of the wagner group in belarus, and what resources does the pmc have? Military expert Mykhailo Zhyrokhov shared his insights with Mind.

Read also: wagner's mutiny: Why the 'mad gangster' prigozhin scares the West

wagner private military contractor has become one of the symbols of the russo-Ukrainian war. It was the fighters of this illegal organisation, even by russian standards, who actively participated in combat operations in the Lugansk Oblast during the summer of 2014, under Debaltseve during the winter of 2015, and of course,near Soledar and Bakhmut  during the autumn of 2022 and spring of 2023. They gained even more notoriety after the so-called 'march of justice', or the attempted military coup on June 23–24, 2023.

However, despite this quite controversial trail, the history of this formation continues: the wagnerites were allowed to relocate to belarus. The investigative project Belarusian Hajun asserts that the main base for the mercenaries of the wagner pmc became a camp near Asipovichy in the Mogilev Oblast – which is about 100 km from Minsk.

What the wagnerites brought with them to belarus

There are various data regarding their numbers and armaments. During the 'march on moscow', prigozhin, the field commander of the wagner private military company, claimed to have 25,000 fighters under his command.

However, based on photos and videos from June 24th, there are no more than 5,000 people with him, well-armed with rifles, grenade launchers, tanks, armoured infantry fighting vehicles, light armoured vehicles, and anti-aircraft systems (Pantsir С-1 systems) as well as Strela-10 SAM systems.

The exact number that went to belarus is unknown, but there is information that a portion of the 'rebels' are signing contracts with the russian ministry of defence en masse, while others are breaking their contracts and returning to civilian life.

As for the equipment, all of it was returned to the warehouses of the russian army (from where it was initially transferred). In the convoys that entered the territory of belarus, there were only armoured personnel carriers; there was no other purely military equipment – only jeeps, minibuses, and trucks.

This means that we can only talk about some kind of personnel reserve, upon which a unit will need to be re-formed. Where these volunteers will come from is a big question. After all, there is ongoing unrest in Africa right now, and Western military observers are already openly discussing the appearance of wagner in Niger. And all of this involves people, once again people – it's evident that they suffered colossal losses during the battles of Bakhmut.

wagner pmc camp in belarus as of 23 July 2023. According to the Institute for the Study of War, ISW. Source: Maxar Technologies

Read also: Mutiny is over: Outcomes and Consequences of the wagner PMC Coup for russia and Ukraine

Who are the wagner pmc mercenaries?

A few words need to be said about the combat value of the wagnerites at the present stage. When the formation of this group began in May 2014, it was somewhat of an 'elite club' that only accepted members after rigorous selection – former paratroopers, special forces with combat experience (and after the ill-conceived reforms in the 2000s, there were quite a few such individuals among civilians). That's why the pmc achieved success in Syria, Libya, and also demonstrated itself fairly well in Donbas.

However, the year 2022 came. For the first time, they faced not local militias armed with Kalashnikovs, but a full-fledged army – with artillery, tanks, and aviation. And losses began to mount rapidly. As a result, they initially put into action those who hadn't passed the selection process in the past, then locals from the occupied territories of the Donetsk and Lugansk oblasts (by the way, everyone who wanted to – they had previously been part of pmc, but in a very limited number). Finally, in the autumn of 2022, they turned to recruiting convicts from prisons across the russian federation. Of course, all of this happened with full state support; the government effectively took this group under its wing.

In June 2023, putin himself claimed that in just a year – from May 2022 to May 2023 – the russian state paid the wagner pmc 86 billion 262 million rubles. It was emphasised that these funds were allocated for the financial support of the fighters and incentive payments. This means that fuel, ammunition, and shells were supplied directly from russian army depots. Clearly, under these conditions, the combat value of wagner in belarus is minimal.

There is also still no information about the belarusian authorities providing them with heavy weaponry or funding. Some sources in the West claimthat after calculating the costs, lukashenko concluded that the budget of his relatively small country simply couldn't bear such a burden. Consequently, he turned to putin for support.

Why does the kremlin need wagner in belarus?

Now we see that the mercenaries are involved as instructors for the belarusian army. Although the question remains open as to what they can teach – facing death by the thousands under HIMARS strikes.

Western and domestic military analysts immediately put forth several theories, the main ones being that the wagnerites could be used for provocations on the Polish or Ukrainian borders. And both versions have the right to exist.

Despite Poland being a member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO), where Article 5 of the Alliance's core treaty is in effect, which states that an attack on a member of the Alliance is considered an attack on the entire Alliance and all NATO countries are obliged to come to aid, including by sending military assistance.

In putin's worldview, NATO is still considered a 'paper tiger' and an extremely bureaucratic structure. This is why there is still a plan within the russian general staff for a lightning-fast capture of the so-called Suwałki Gap and establishing a land route to the once-annexed Kaliningrad Oblast. Essentially, by presenting NATO with the prospect of a global nuclear armageddon, russian generals envision retaining these territorial gains for themselves.

Of course, these are schizophrenic fantasies, and most likely NATO's response in such a scenario would be swift and effective. However, the fact remains.

In turn, the Baltic countries and Poland are deploying significant forces along the border with belarus. It is known that Poland has already dispatched 1,000 servicemen and 200 units of equipment to its eastern region. This is an addition to the 500 policemen, 5,000 border guards, and 2,000 soldiers who are already guarding this border.

Regarding the threat to the Ukrainian border

Firstly, our northern borders consist of very specific terrain – forests, stretching for tens of kilometres. Therefore, in order to operate successfully there, it's necessary to have not only well-coordinated small groups with training and equipment, but also individuals who can survive in the forest. This is quite challenging, especially for someone who grew up in a city or has specific experience in street fighting in the urbanised Donbas.

Secondly, at least for the last six months, the border with belarus has been so covered in terms of engineering (and there are not just mines, but also a bunch of traps and surveillance systems) that such 'hikes' would be very costly for wagner and the belarusian border guards if they went for a walk in the local forests.