A disaster for Putin or four indications of the Russianmilitary failure

Bloody and unprovoked Russia's invasion of Ukraine has undeniably backfired. It was supposed to be a blitzkrieg designed to take Kyiv and show the Russian might and Western uselessness. If the war were short, if Zelensky's administration gave up easily, we would see a standard package of sanctions and the West's condemnation.

Shortly after, the Russian president Vladimir Putin would get away with it, and the world could quickly forget what happened. McDonald's would continue to work as it used to. bp and Shell would stay too. Roman Abramovich would not be forced to sell Chelsea FC. And The Central Bank of Russia could dispose of foreign exchange reserves as usual.

But Russia has failed to pull out the victory. The invasion of Ukraine has grown to be monstrous attrition warfare. So now, any outcome will take a heavy toll on the Kremlin, experts say.

"He has made a fatal mistake. He will not survive Ukraine. He has vastly underestimated the Ukrainian resistance, says Former CIA counterintelligence chief James Olson. He's underestimated the unity and the resolve of the West. He can't stop the flow of weapons into Ukraine. And even if he defeats Ukraine militarily, he'll be faced with an occupation that he cannot sustain against a population that absolutely despises him and everything Russian. The best he could hope for would be a guerrilla war on a scale that I think would be comparable to Afghanistan."

Mind has gathered four indications of the fiasco of Putin's war in Ukraine.

Ukraine has won the 'LikeWar'

According to the famous strategist, Peter W. Singer from New America Foundation think tank, the information space is one of the most crucial parts of the battlefield in modern war. It is about “cyberwar” and its counterpart – “Likewar” where the information and people inside the computer network are being hacked.

"If your ideas get out and win out, that determines everything from whether soldiers, civilians and onlookers around the world will join your cause to what people believe about the very truth of what's occurring on the ground. And, if your ideas don't win out, you can lose the war before it even begins[...] Russia failed at the information side of the fight as much as it failed at its plan for a quick seizure of Kyiv," explains Peter Warren Singer.

He states that Ukraine has successfully turned social media into a weapon. And that we have begun the battle for hearts and minds well ahead of time. Our country will not just win this battle; we already have the upper hand. And it is too late for Russia to change public opinion.

In Singer's opinion, the strategies Ukraine used are worth adding to textbooks on waging information warfare. Debunking pre-planned opponent's provocations merits special praise. If in 2014, Ukraine had to expose the myth about "a crucified 3-year-old boy" after the fact, this time the whole world witnessed the amassing of armored vehicles before the invasion in the satellite pictures. Moreover, everybody knew beforehand that Russia prepares false-flag provocations and surrender fakes.

Heroic tales about "the Kyiv ghost," "Ukrainian Davids" standing up to fight against the "Russian Goliaths," etc., have also proven crucial. They have inspired the Ukrainians to fight in the first hours of war and sent the message to the West that Ukraine is worth the support.

Damaged armory and victory in small battles showcased in the mass media made it possible for the majority of the Ukrainians to believe in a swift victory over Russia. Viral videos of people blocking the path of tanks and protesting in the occupied cities have shown the civilians how to help the military defend the nation.

The Russian attack is withering away

Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines said Putin is upset with the West and perceives this war as the one he cannot afford to lose. However, the more days go by, the more experts question his ability to win this war. 

Analysts claim that it took three weeks for the USA to take Baghdad in 2003. Ukrainian war lasts three weeks already, but Putin is still far away from the goal of "demilitarization and denazification," which means installing a Russian puppet regime in Ukraine.

"In most parts of the country, Russian forces have become largely inert. Front lines have stagnated. We're not sure exactly why, but it seems pretty clear now that this is due to profound strategic and logistical failure. They have supply issues. They have equipment issues. Their troops seem confused and lacking morale. The Ukrainian resistance avoids set-piece battles and instead focuses on ambushes and attacks on supply lines," says British political analyst Ian Dunt.

According to him, time is against Putin. With the support of the West, Ukrainian troops enforce their defense, which is clearly a much simpler military task than an attack. Meanwhile, the world is imposing more and more sanctions on Russia strangling the Russian economy and restricting its ability to finance the war. 

NATO's moderateness humiliates Russia

NATO is under criticism for its rejection to close the sky over Ukraine or otherwise get involved in the war. However, this policy of non-interference deprives Putin of the possibility to brave the war against the USA. The defeat by Ukrainian forces may harm Putin much harder than a clash with the Western countries’ troops.

"NATO's decision to forgo direct intervention in Ukraine is proving to be a wise strategy for opposing Russia's invasion of Ukraine, states Ariel Petrovics, an Assistant Research Professor at the University of Maryland's School of Public Policy. [...] military restraint by the United States and NATO may have done more to generate international blowback for Russia than aggressive intervention would have done."

Ariel Petrovics suggests that Ukraine's resilience and ability to block the attack have turned out to be a complete surprise, especially for Moscow. Demonstrating fierce resistance on their own, Ukrainians have expressed very clearly that they do not take Putin as a "liberator," which guaranteed worldwide support. Russians are watching inglorious attacks of their army on a neighboring country start to realize that Russia’s worst enemy is not the West but their government. 

"The invasion is playing out on a world stage in real time, and as such, global observers have been able to spectate Russia's advances – and their surprising slow progress – in unprecedented ways. [...] The world has watched as Russian tanks ran out of fuel, and even Russian soldiers turning themselves over without a fight. It is hard for the Kremlin to maintain an image of the unstoppable superpower when it cannot overcome a smaller neighbor, 1/30 of Russia's size, acting alone, and with only 1/10 of Russia's defense budget," muses Ariel Petrovics.

The brutality of the Russian army is boomeranging back

"The Russian army is trying to make up for its lack of military skill with sheer brutality. It is pounding Mariupol and Kharkiv into rubble, deliberately targeting civilians just as it once did in Aleppo, Syria, and the Chechen capital of Grozny. Kyiv's turn is likely next. Putin might even use chemical weapons. But such brutality can often boomerang by leading to stiffer resistance," explains senior fellow for national security and The Wahington Post columnist Max Boot.

To ruin the city with artillery and missiles is much easier than to occupy it. Only the ruins make great firing positions for the defenders and seriously obstruct the advance of armored vehicles.

As Mind has mentioned, it took nine months in 2016-2017 for more than 100,000 US-backed Iraqi offensive forces to capture the devastated city of Mosul, which only about 6,000 ISIS militants defended.

Russian ally Bashar al-Assad is still trying to crush a rebellion in bombed Syrian province Aleppo after seven years of Russian intervention despite all regime's atrocities.