Iran will support putin, and the USA the Mujahideen: How the Ukraine conflict expands
The United States will punish Tehran for supplying weapons to russia
The NATO leader warned of a possible expansion of the Ukraine war, and the White House officials spoke about the involvement of Tehran, providing Putin's army with thousands of drones and hundreds of ballistic missiles. In this light, US senators passed a resolution to support anti-government protests in Iran, which have not subsided for three months after the beating and death of Mahsa Amini.
What is known about the military alliance between Tehran and moscow
On December 9, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg in an interview with the Norwegian TV station NRK worried that the war in Ukraine could spiral out of control and turn into a large war between NATO and russia.
On the same day, John Kirby, coordinator of the National Security Council of the White House expressed concern about the development of ties between russia and Iran into a "full-scale defense partnership", which will be harmful to Ukraine, Iran's neighbours and the international community.
John Kirby said that Iran is going to set up a drone factory in russia, while considering the possibility of supplying hundreds of ballistic missiles. For its part, russia may supply Iran with helicopters, air defence systems and Su-35 fighter jets. Iranian pilots, according to the White House, are already being trained in russia.
"These fighters will significantly strengthen Iran's air force relative to its regional neighbours," said John Kirby.
The Washington Post, referring to senior NATO military officials, reports that Iran has agreed to supply up to 6,000 drones, mostly Shahed models. As Mind reported, since mid-October, putin's army has been using these "poor man's cruise missiles" to strike at Ukraine's energy infrastructure.
Iran admits transferring its drones to russia, but insists that they were sent only before the Ukraine invasion. However, this is contradicted by fabrication stamps found on drone wreckage.
NATO officials told the Washington Post that their intelligence indicates Tehran has agreed to receive $1 billion in a deal with moscow and has promised to provide designs as well as engineering supervision for a planned russian drone factory to be built in Tatarstan.
By contributing to the escalation of the Ukraine war, Iran is putting itself at risk of US retaliation. State Department spokesman Ned Price warned that the U.S. government "has tools that go beyond sanctions and other financial measures," and Washington is using them to "counter Iran’s malign influence."
What the war in Ukraine has to do with the protests in Iran
Washington is convinced that within the defence partnership, moscow will assist Iran in quelling anti-government protests, based on its own experience of suppressing demonstrations.
"This is yet another example of russia and Iran working together to violate not only the human and civil rights of people in Iran, but also, of course, to further endanger the lives of Ukrainians," John Kirby said.
The more intensively the Iranian regime moves closer to russia, the more it distances itself from the Iranian people and incites protests inside its country, American diplomats say. US Special Representative for Iran Rob Malley called it a "vicious circle."
"The more Iran represses, the more there will be sanctions; the more there are sanctions, the more Iran feels isolated. The more isolated they feel, the more they turn to russia; the more they turn to russia, the more sanctions there will be, the more the climate deteriorates, the less likely there will be nuclear diplomacy. So it is true right now the vicious cycles are all self-reinforcing," explains Rob Malley.
What is unusual about the protests in Iran
The current rallies in Iran are extremely radical – demonstrators demand the overthrow of the regime. The protests have a female face – Iranian demonstrators in talks with Western diplomats are represented by Miriam Rajavi, who was elected president of the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI), based in France and Albania.
By estimates of Human Rights Activists in Iran, an organisation that monitors the protests, 485 anti-government demonstrators have been killed and 18,200 arrested in Iran in three months. Criminal investigations have been initiated against 1,500 of them, and at least 13 demonstrators have already received death sentences.
On Thursday, December 8, the first protester was executed: 23-year-old Mohsen Shekar was found guilty and hanged. The authorities claim that during a street demonstration in Tehran, he attacked with a knife and wounded in the shoulder a member of the pro-government Basij paramilitary group.
The US course to topple the regime in Iran
On Wednesday, December 7, 11 US Senators approved a bipartisan resolution to support the protests against the Iranian regime. And on Thursday, December 8, senators held a briefing in the hall of the US Congress attended by Miriam Rajavi, who spoke via video link and expressed the opinion that the Iranian regime is living its last days, and it is time to exclude it from the UN institutions.
"All evidence suggests that the regime has reached the point of no return in the final phase of its rule. The Shah’s dictatorship had a well-equipped army of 400,000 men, but it could not overcome the will of the Iranian people. The same is true in the present circumstances. The Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) and its arsenal of missiles and drones, terrorism, and crimes in Iraq, Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen could not save Khamenei…The uprising in Iran will not only establish freedom and democracy but will also end the increasing threats posed by the regime to regional and global peace," Miriam Rajavi said in an address to the U.S. Senate.
Senators from both parties expressed their support for Miriam Rajavi and called on other U.S. legislators to intensify pressure on Iran.
"I hope that Congress will approve the bipartisan resolution passed in the Senate commending the bravery of the Iranian protesters. It will help amplify the voices of the hundreds of thousands of Iranian women and men protesting the brutality of one of the world's most repressive regimes," said Democrat Bob Menendez, who chairs the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.
"I think we have to put maximum pressure on the Iranian leadership... To the Iranian people and Iranian-Americans, know that I stand with you every step along the way and hopefully we will see a change and tens of millions of honest, hardworking and freedom-seeking Iranians begin to enjoy their freedoms," saidRepublican Senator Tom Tillis.
Former U.S. Ambassador Marc Ginsberg, speaking at a U.S. Senate briefing, called the uprising in Iran an irreversible process, which the Ayatollahs will not be able to suffocate.
"Secretly for almost two decades, the MEK has had cells operating in Iran to help train these young women and young students on how to effectively fight for freedom when oppressors are determined to kill you... And with all due respect to my friends in the Biden Administration, it’s about time for providing the MEK and NCRI with resources and support for the very cause that they now embrace. We, Americans, just cannot be mere observers, we must be active participants, because the sacrifice of the Iranian people must not be in vain," urged Marc Ginsberg.
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