Becoming a member of the European Union out of turn will be impossible. What other lessons did Ukraine learn from the EU-Ukraine summit?
Despite unconditional support for the European course, membership prospects are not unconditional by default
Last week was marked by the 24th EU-Ukraine Summit. Expectations from it were the boldest. Some overly optimistic experts and even officials did not rule out that an express procedure for Ukraine's membership in the EU could be announced during the meetings.
The reality, as is often the case, turned out to be much more mundane and prosaic. The European path requires a lot of "homework" from Ukraine. And the mere fact of a bloody war on its territory and the heroism displayed is not enough to gain membership.
Mind has analysed the messages Ukraine has received from its European partners and what to do with them now.
Could Ukraine really count on a fast-track accession to the EU? Given that the European press had been actively analysing and eventually refuted this possibility on the eve of the summit. Such assumptions were at least possible. In Ukraine, officials carelessly mentioned two years as a very realistic timeframe for membership.
Enthusiasm has been adjusted by unequivocal statements by the European Parliament that EU membership is a "complex and long process." There is no exclusive or alternative path to it compared to the "homework" that other countries have done.
However, this summit is unprecedented. It was the first time Ukraine participated as a candidate country.
What specific benefits did Ukraine receive as a result of the summit? First and foremost, the European Union, represented by EC President Ursula von der Leyen, confirmed its support for Ukraine on the entire path to membership, no matter how long it takes. This warning was a fly in the ointment that makes sober, as European officials made it clear that accession procedures would unlikely be radically shortened, even given the candidate's special circumstances.
Second, Ukrainian businesses and institutions have gained access to additional EU programs. According to Ivanna Klympush-Tsintsadze, Chairwoman of the Verkhovna Rada Committee on Ukraine's Integration into the EU, the EU opened an additional number of programs for Ukrainians at the summit.
In particular, small and medium-sized enterprises have been given the opportunity to participate in tenders under the EU's Single Market programme.
The richer the country, the more desirable it is in the EU? No, it is not a direct correlation, because the economic statuses of even current EU members are not equal.
Ukraine's post-war economic situation, which is obviously not brilliant, will not play a decisive role in the progress of membership.
According to Tobias Thyberg, Ambassador of Sweden to Ukraine, the focus of European partners' attention in recent years has been shifting from the economy to issues of freedom, democracy, and the rule of law.
When can we expect specifics on the timing of Ukraine's accession to the EU? In the spring, we will receive feedback from the European Commission on the interim assessment of the membership conditions' fulfilment.
Officially, the progress will be assessed in the fall based on the results of full-fledged monitoring as a part of the overall EU enlargement package. "It is irresponsible, in my opinion, to say that we can count on this earlier and to raise the degree of public expectation," Klympush-Tsintsadze said.
Specific dates are not mentioned, even as an assumption. "Of course, I can't say when the membership of the European Union will happen, but we already understand that it is a realistic goal for Ukraine," Tobias Thyberg said.
So, by the end of this year, it should be clear that Ukraine is starting negotiations. If it does not happen, it will be difficult to do so in 2024 due to the wave of elections.
According to Andrius Kubilius, a member of the European Parliament and head of the international association "Together for Ukraine", the negotiations should last 3–4 years. "It should be remembered that in Europe there is a certain bureaucratic approach to all processes," he emphasized.
How much is the EU spending to support Ukraine now? This year, 18 billion euros of aid has already been confirmed, and the total support budget is 50 billion euros.
Are there any anti-examples of long-lived candidates? Yes, of course.
Albania, Montenegro, and North Macedonia have been negotiating for 10 years, although most European bureaucrats say that these countries are ready for membership. Ukraine's performance is significantly worse than those countries'.
Representatives of the European Commission have made it clear that the door to the EU is slightly wider open for a NATO candidate than for other applicants.
Is Ukraine's progress in completing its "homework" noticeable? The New Europe Centre in partnership with a number of specialized think tanks and NGOs conducted the third independent monitoring of Ukraine's implementation of EU recommendations. The overall score of the "Candidate Check-3" is 5.8 points, which is 1.1 points higher than last year.
In terms of directions:
- Constitutional Court reform – 2 points;
- Supreme Council of Justice and High Qualification Commission of Judges of Ukraine reform – 7 points;
- anti-corruption: Specialized Anti-Corruption Prosecutor's Office and National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine – 7 points;
- fight against money laundering – 6 points;
- anti-oligarchic reform – 2 points;
- media legislation – 9 points;
- legislation on national minorities – 8 points.
The most problematic criteria, given the scores, are the reform of the Constitutional Court and anti-oligarchic processes.
Is there a reason for optimism? Yes. Kyiv's readiness is still slightly better than Moldova's, whose membership is being considered simultaneously with Ukraine's.
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