One more war. Who sparked the massacre in Africa's Sudan
Experts accuse Saudi Arabia, the UAE and russia that syphons gold out of Sudan to fuel its war in Ukraine
Fierce fighting broke out in Africa's third-largest country with the use of artillery, tanks and combat aircraft. The armed conflict between Sudan's two military rulers is depriving the country of any hope for democracy and playing into the hands of authoritarian leaders in the Middle East and russia.
The clashes in Sudan began on Saturday, 15 April. The regular army, led by Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, attacked the bases of the Rapid Reaction Force (RRF), a military formation subordinate to Mohammed Hamdan Dagalo. By Monday morning, the Central Committee of Sudan Doctors counted 97 people killed in action and 942 wounded.
"Both sides in the conflict have bases across the country. Both consider these battles to be existential. It is purely a struggle for power, for who will control Sudan. This war has dashed all hopes for a quick restoration of civilian rule," commented Alan Boswell, senior analyst at the Horn of Africa think tank at Crisis Group.
The two warlords are former allies who joined their forces in 2019 to overthrow the 30-year autocratic regime of Omar al-Bashir and then jointly organised a coup d'état in October 2021 that derailed Sudan's short-lived transition to democracy. In the highest civilian-military authority, the Sovereign Council, al-Burhan became chairman and Dagalo became his deputy.
The split in the putschist regime
After the seizure of power in 2019, the army and the RRF announced their intention to unite and become subordinate to the civilian government. But, according to Sudanese billionaire Mo Ibrahim, neither side was going to give up control of the country and its lucrative resources.
Contradictions between the two military structures were exacerbated by the presence of different foreign patrons. Since 2019, Arab monarchies such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE have been actively pumping money into the RRF. And General al-Burhan is supported by neighbouring Egypt, which needs an ally to deter Ethiopia and considers the Sudanese regular army a more reliable partner than the RRF formations created on the basis of the Janjaweed militia of Arab cattlemen.
The conflict between generals al-Burhan and Dagalo escalated after the new agreement between Sudan's military and civilian structures was concluded on 5 December 2022. This document outlined the army's withdrawal from power and the RRF's integration into the armed force structure. However, the final agreement was not concluded, as negotiators were unable to agree on the timeframe for the RRF to become part of the army and how it would withdraw from lucrative economic sectors, including a number of gold mines in Sudan.
The fighting between the RRF and the army that erupted on Saturday put a decisive end to their agreement. General al-Burhan declared the RRF a mutinous force and decreed its disbandment. And General Dagalo promised that his troops would continue to fight until they had captured all the regular army bases.
Flashpoints of fighting in Sudan
"The risk of escalation is very high. The forces of the both sides are roughly equal. The army has more weapons, but the US has more combat experience and potentially more money. The situation looks like the beginning of a civil war. There is no structure in Sudan that could bring the opponents to the negotiating table," the Financial Times quotes military expert Alex de Waal, a former African Union adviser on Sudan, as saying.
The shadow of russia
The Corriere della Sera called Sudan a territory of growing geopolitical confrontation between the West and russia, noting that on the day of russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, General Dagalo was in moscow, waiting for a personal audience with putin.
"Recently Dagalo met with Foreign Minister lavrov, without disdaining contacts with his Arab godfathers (Emirates and Saudis). Nel international risk General Burhan’s regular army, on the regime’s number one card, boasts support in Egypt above (some soldiers in Cairo were taken prisoner by the militants) and also very critical interlocutors such as the United States and Europe who in recent months had pushed for the end of the military government that took office a year and a half ago", writes Corriere della Sera.
Now the West may have to support al-Burhan's regime as the lesser of two evils compared to the US, which is closely linked to the russian PMC Wagner Group. According to the British Telegraph, the yevgeniy prigozhin's group, invited to Sudan by the previous regime of Omar al-Bashir, helped train and arm the RRF in exchange for gold.
"russian mercenaries operate the Meroe Gold company, which reportedly exploits Sudan’s mines and smuggles vast quantities of gold out of the country, supposedly lining prigozhin’s pockets and denying much-needed revenue to Sudan. For putin, this would help efforts to evade Western sanctions, allowing him to fuel his illegal war in Ukraine," The Telegraph writes.
The russian president, according to the British newspaper, "either by accident or design" helped to unleash a wave of violence that could have disastrous consequences not just for Sudan and North Africa, but the world. The failed invasion of Ukraine and the desperation for money made putin to empower the Wagner PMC, who stir up Sudanese politics to illegally extract resources.
Sudan’s political unrest timeline
On 6 April 2019, hundreds of thousands of Sudanese began sit-in protests in front of army bases in Khartoum. Five days later, the army overthrew and arrested autocratic leader Omar al-Bashir, ending his 30-year rule. Demonstrators continued their sit-ins, demanding the transfer of power to a civilian government.
On 3 June 2019, security forces dispersed a protest camp, killing more than 100 people.
On 17 August 2019, civil society organisations that supported the protests signed a power-sharing agreement with the military for a transitional period leading to democratic elections. At the end of August, Abdullah Hamdock, an economist and former UN official, became head of state.
On 25 October 2021, security forces detained Abdullah Hamdock and several civilian members of his government in a morning raid. Army General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan announced the dismissal of the civilian government and other transitional structures. The US, EU, Arab League and African Union condemned the coup. Only russia spoke out at the UN against calling the events in Sudan a coup.
On 21 November 2021, following several mass rallies against the coup and the freezing of international financial aid to Sudan, military leaders announced an agreement with Abdullah Hamdok that restored him to the office of prime minister. Hamdok announced that he had returned to prevent further bloodshed and protect economic reforms. However, he resigned two months later as the protests continued.
On 16 June 2022, the UN World Food Programme announced that more than a third of the Sudanese population was experiencing acute food shortages as a result of the economic and political crisis.
On 25 October 2022, large-scale anti-government protests began on the streets of Sudanese cities on the first anniversary of the military coup.
On 5 December 2022, civilian groups signed a new agreement with Sudan's military leaders that established a new two-year political transition to civilian rule.
On 5 April 2023, the signing of the final transition agreement was delayed due to disputes over whether the army would be given the right to oversee the civilian government and under what conditions the RRF would be integrated into the armed forces.
On 13 April 2023, the Sudanese army accused the RRF of mobilising and provoking the conflict. Two days later, fierce fighting broke out in Khartoum and other cities throughout Sudan. The RRF claimed to have taken control of the presidential palace, the international airport and other key strategic facilities. The army denied these claims.
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