Georgia resumes civil flight connection with russia. How this will affect Ukraine's international positions?

"Not by Turkey alone" – this is how one can describe the policy pursued by the Kremlin towards Georgia over the past few months. This spring, the small post-Soviet republic was showered with an unprecedented wave of concessions and overture.

In mid-May, russia lifted its ban on its airlines' flights and the sale of tours to Georgia, which had been in effect since 2019, and on the same day, May 15, vladimir putin signed a decree, cancelling the visa regime with this Caucasian country. The first civilian flight from moscow to Tbilisi after almost a four-year break was scheduled for May 17, but was then postponed to the 19th.

Given that the population of Georgia is less than 4 million people, i.e., less than in Kyiv, the gesture is not overly generous, but in terms of symbolism – it has no equal. After the publication of the presidential decree, the russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced that it was cancelling the recommendation for russians to refrain from travelling to Georgia.

Mind examined: what is behind this unilateral rapprochement and what Ukraine should expect from it.

Did russia and Georgia sever flight connection due to russia's annexation of Abkhazia? Though it's a logical assumption, no. russian-Georgian aviation relations can be described by the common phrase "it's complicated".

Air links between Georgia and russia were first suspended in the autumn of 2006 amid a scandal over the arrest of russian officers whom Georgia accused of spying. After a year and a half, the countries agreed to fully restore their connection. The first flight was performed in March 2008. However, after the start of the war in South Ossetia in August 2008, the flights were again suspended.

Within a year, the countries had resumed charter transit, which were performed under separate permissions and only between moscow and Tbilisi. Scheduled airline traffic resumed only in October 2014.

Amid political events, namely the several thousand-strong  anti-russian rally in Tbilisi, on June 21, 2019, the russian president vladimir putin signed an order, according to which from July 8, russian airlines were temporarily prohibited to "perform air traffic (including commercial) of citizens from the territory of russia to the territory of Georgia". A similar ban also came into force in regard to Georgian airlines.

The official reason cited by the russian Ministry of Transport was the need to ensure an adequate level of aviation safety, as well as the existence of overdue debt on the Georgian side for aeronautical activity. However, later, russian Foreign Minister sergey lavrov stated that for the restoration of the connection, Tbilisi needs to stop "acting with regard to  russophobes" and start "promoting a position in favour of normal relations with russia".

How was air travel carried out during this period? Passengers used transit routes, including through Ukraine. Before its bankruptcy, this route was served by the Aerosvit company, then Ukraine International Airlines (UIA) took over.

From 2014, russia unilaterally stopped allowing Ukrainian airlines into its territory, and from the autumn of 2015, tit-for-tat measures were taken on our side. "After that, Kyiv dropped off as a transit point," aviation expert Yevgen Treskunov explains. However, Istanbul has always worked and continues to work as a transfer hub for CIS countries.

How intensive is the air traffic between russia and Georgia and vice versa? According to the Georgian Foreign Ministry, in 2022, the country was visited by 1.5 million russians, which is five times more than in 2021. In addition, according to the National Statistical Service of Georgia, russia took first place in the number of people who moved to the country – 62,304 out of 179,778.

Georgian airports also significantly increased their passenger flow, receiving over 4.4 million people, 78% more than in 2021. Tbilisi International Airport served over 2.9 million passengers, which is 78% more compared to January – December 2021.

Kutaisi airport last year received about 796,000 passengers, 182% more than in 2021. About 616,800 passengers passed through Batumi airport in 2022, which is 20% more than the previous year.

Who has received permission to fly to russia and Georgia? Azimuth and Georgian Airways have already received permission for direct flights from the Georgian authorities. The first flight from moscow to Tbilisi will take place on May 19th.

Why has russia decided to resume flights to Georgia? "One of the reasons for resuming flights is that a large number of russians have travelled to Georgia. But from the point of view of both the country's safety and further partnership with the EU, this is a rather strange step on the part of Georgia. They still don't understand what they have lost," says Treskunov. "It is quite likely that these Georgian airlines will be banned from flying to Europe. In addition, only those passengers who are not afraid of anything will be able to use these flights, because there are always more thorough checks at airports, and if the authorities wish, they can detain anyone."

In addition, a direct flight from russia to Georgia is a little on the pricy side. The market is already mentioning a price of $300 per ticket. And under all these conditions, the load factor of flights will be 30-40%, which from a commercial point of view will not be a profitable level for airlines. So they will likely stop flights after some time or further increase prices.

Does this decision have a political component? Of course, and it could be the main one. russia is trying to maximise its influence or at least loyalty towards itself. And it's willing to pay for it.

Given Europe's loss in this sense, the CIS countries have become obvious beneficiaries of such activity.

How has Georgia itself reacted to russia's 'generosity'? It's gratifying to see that the response is mixed.

While most citizens boil their emotions down to the price of air tickets and the elimination of visa difficulties, there is a passionate section of society that sees clear risks in this rapprochement.

Protests under the conditional slogan "russian plane, follow your warship!" took place this week outside the parliament building in Tbilisi.

What was the West's reaction to the resumption of russian-Georgian air connection? The European Union has expressed traditional regret and concern in this regard.

In particular, Peter Stano, the official representative of the EU's foreign policy service at a briefing in Brussels, stated that Europe regrets the decision of the Georgian government. And he expressed "fears for Georgia's European path" in this regard.

Vedant Patel, the press secretary of the US State Department, emphasised that now is "not the time" to intensify any interaction with the aggressor country.

"If direct flights take place between russia and Georgia, that would be of increasing concern – not just to the United States and other Western countries but as well as companies that may be operating out of Georgian airports... The entire Western community has distanced itself from the russian federation," he said.

How will this impact Ukraine? More significantly than it might initially appear.

First, any expansion of russian influence is not advantageous to the pro-Western coalition, upon which the outcome of the war in Ukraine depends.

Second, Georgia's neutrality triggers a chain reaction for other countries – neighbours from the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS).

And finally – most importantly – any rapprochement with the aggressor country under current conditions forms a dangerous precedent. However, it is unlikely that Georgia has such definitive authority to actively attract other followers.