A military coup in Niger. How will it help putin?
The junta has overthrown Mohamed Bazoum, the last pro-Western president in the Sahel region of Africa
On Wednesday, 26th July 2023, the military announced on national television in Niger that the regime of the country's President, Mohammed Bazoum, has been overthrown. Borders have been closed, a nationwide curfew has been imposed from 10:00 PM to 5:00 AM, and all activities of the republic's institutions have been suspended.
Niger remained the only pro-Western democratic country in the Sahel region, where jihadist uprisings have been spreading. Previously, in 2021-2022, military coups took place in Mali and Burkina Faso, while in Chad, as reported by Mind, a 'dynastic coup' occurred following the death of President Idriss Déby at the hands of rebels.
"A nightmare scenario for Western powers who had betted on Bazoum and Niger as new security anchor for the Sahel," commented Ulf Laessing, a Sahel specialist and head of the Sahel programme at the Konrad Adenauer Foundation "Western countries showered Niger with aid programmes and engaged in joint military and economic projects. Now, even if Bazoum remains in power, Western policymakers will no longer see Niger as an anchor of stability in the Sahel."
If the coup in Niger is successful, all five Sahel countries will be ruled by active or former military personnel. According to Rida Lyammouri, a senior fellow at the Moroccan think tank Policy Center for the New South, this could mark the beginning of a new era of military control and the end of the era of hope for democracy.
"As we have seen in Burkina Faso and Mali, coups do not actually solve the security problems they claim to address. Military coups only harm the countries, pushing them further away from a stable and prosperous future," emphasises Rida Lyammouri.
How the military seized power in Niger
The coup in Niger was carried out by servicemen from the presidential guard. On the morning of July 26, they blockaded Mohammed Bazoum in his residence in the capital city, Niamey, and held negotiations until late evening to avoid confrontation with other military structures in the country.
During this time, the city remained calm, and the military did not block access to the internet or restrict street movement. There were no reports of shootings or the presence of armoured vehicles around the president's residence. According to news agencies, only a few hundred protesters against the coup had gathered in the centre of Niamey by evening.
Finally, at 23:30, Colonel Amadou Abdraman appeared on television surrounded by nine officers in military uniforms. He announced that the military had taken power in the country due to a "deteriorating security situation and poor governance in the economic and social spheres".
Poverty, desertification, and jihadists
Despite economic aid from Western countries, half of Niger's 26-million population lives below the poverty line. Experts attribute this to the world's highest birth rate of 6.8 children per woman. Another factor contributing to poverty is the encroaching Sahara Desert, which already covers 80% of the country's territory and annually consumes vast areas of fertile land, causing droughts and famine.
Additionally, Niger is grappling with two jihadist campaigns. Since 2015, extremist groups affiliated with Al-Qaeda from neighbouring Mali have been terrorising the southwest territories of the country. Simultaneously, jihadists from the Islamic State, based in Nigeria, are launching attacks on the southeast of Niger. The clashes with both Al-Qaeda and Islamic State militants occur only 100 km from the capital.
Mohamed Bazoum sought to address these issues by strengthening cooperation with France and the USA. He clashed with Mali, where a 'pro-russian junta' came to power, leading to the relocation of French counter-terrorism units expelled from Mali and Burkina Faso to Niger with his assistance. Currently, more than 1500 French soldiers are stationed in the country, and two American military bases are also present, training personnel for armies of several African countries and conducting counter-terrorism operations using drones.
Attack on democracy and uranium supplies
Mohamed Bazoum's election as president in 2021 marked the first democratic transfer of power in Niger's history since gaining independence from France in 1960.
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken condemned yesterday's military coup and warned that the United States might cut economic aid to Niger if it abandons "democratic governance" and the rule of law.
The coup plotters may try to persuade the U.S. State Department to maintain aid in exchange for continuing a pro-Western policy. However, analysts at the Critical Threats Project of the American Enterprise Institute, believe that the organisers of the coup will try to play on anti-Western sentiments popular in the country to garner public support. If this leads to international isolation, they may turn to russia for military assistance, following Mali's example.
"russia could exploit a new junta government to evade Western sanctions. russian information operations have boosted popular anti-Western and pro-russian sentiment in Niger, like many other countries across the Sahel. russia capitalised on this sentiment and the anti-Western junta in Mali to secure a deal to deploy the Wagner Group in 2021, and it has explored deals with the Burkinabe junta since at least 2022," writes the Critical Threats Project.
Experts believe that russia is interested in Niger's uranium mines, as controlling them would facilitate Moscow's funding of the war in Ukraine and evasion of sanctions.
According to Energy Monitor, russia supplies 35% of enriched uranium to the global market, generating funds for the war, including from the US and EU budgets. Analysts claim that it is more difficult for the US and Europe to refuse imports of russian nuclear fuel than to give up oil and gas. If Niger's ties with russia grow stronger, this task will become even more challenging.
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