IS-Khorasan War: What Did Organizers of Crocus Massacre Achieve?
russia was attacked by a sworn enemy of the Afghan Taliban and Iran
On March 22, armed gunmen stormed the Crocus City Hall shopping and entertainment center near Moscow, killing 139 people and injuring about 180. The Islamic State in Khorasan Province (IS-Khorasan), a group based in Afghanistan, claimed responsibility for the attack.
Find out what is known about ISIS-K and its motives for attacking russia with Mind.
ISIS-K is the Afghan branch with international ambitions
The ISIS-K group broke away from the Pakistani branch of the Taliban in 2015 and moved to neighboring Afghanistan under pressure from the Pakistani army. Its name comes from the ancient region (wilayat) of Khorasan, which included, in addition to Afghanistan, parts of present-day Iran, Pakistan, and Turkmenistan.
Initially, ISIS-K consisted of several thousand people and focused on seizing territory. But its ranks were thinning due to fierce clashes with both the US Army and the Afghanistan government, as well as with their enemy, the Taliban. By 2018, the organized resistance of ISIS-K was effectively broken, and several leaders were killed.
The group's new era began in 2020, when it was led by a young Afghan Tajik, Sanaullah Ghafari. He dramatically changed the ISIS-K strategy, refocusing it from direct clashes to ruthless terror against the Taliban and Americans.
ISIS-K first became the focus of global attention and started creating an image of a formidable organization in August 2021. During the chaotic withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan, Sanaullah Ghafari managed to organize a terrorist attack at the gates of Kabul International Airport. A suicide bomber blew himself up, killing 13 American soldiers and nearly 170 Afghans who were trying to escape the Taliban entering the city.
Shortly afterward, the strengthened ISIS-K named new enemies, including Iran and russia. On September 5, 2022, the russian embassy in Kabul was attacked. A suicide bomber with a bomb ran up to the visa queue. The explosion killed at least ten people, including two members of the russian diplomatic mission.
In Iran, ISIS-K carried out a major terrorist attack on the anniversary of the death of general Qasem Soleimani. In January 2024, two explosions occurred in the city of Kerman, killing 95 people. Earlier, in August 2023, the group organized a terrorist attack at the Shah Cheragh Mausoleum in Shiraz, Iran. Three shooters opened fire on worshippers with assault rifles, killing 15 people and injuring 45 people.
In 2021, ISIS-K filled the vacuum left by the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan. In almost every one of the country's 34 provinces, the group set up training bases and recruited Afghan Pashtuns, as well as ethnic Tajiks and Uzbeks dissatisfied with the Taliban's rise to power.
According to UN estimates, by mid-2023, ISIS-K had grown to 4,000-6,000 militants and their families. In October 2023, the director of the russian fsb, alexander bortnikov, estimated the number of this group at 6,500 people.
It is noteworthy that on March 7, the day the US Embassy warned of possible terrorist attacks in russia, the russian fsb reported the destruction of an ISIS-K center in the Kaluga oblast. The russian authorities announced that law enforcement officers had engaged and shot dead citizens of Kazakhstan who were members of the Khorasan branch of the Islamic State preparing an attack on the parishioners of a moscow synagogue.
ISIS-K members in a training camp
Why is ISIS-K attacking russia?
Murat Aslan, a military analyst and former colonel in the Turkish army, notes that belonging to the Islamic State makes Afghan jihadists declare their intentions to take revenge on russia.
"Their ideology made them include russia in the list of priority targets. First, russia entered Syria and fought against ISIS there... Now they are in moscow. And before that, they were in Iran. And we will see many more attacks, perhaps in the capitals of other countries," Al Jazeera quoted Murat Aslan.
"ISIS looks at russian foreign policy like a bull looks at a big red rag," said Michael Kugelman, director of the South Asia Institute at Wilson Center in Washington, D.C. "The Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, russian actions in Chechnya, close ties with the Syrian and Iranian regimes, and especially russia's military campaigns against ISIS in Syria and through the Wagner mercenaries in Africa. All of this has made the jihadists target moscow."
The Afghan group's anger toward russia has grown in recent years as moscow has been entering into partnerships with ISIS-K's regional enemies, Iran and the Taliban.
For example, the Taliban recently sent its military attaché Ahmad Yasser, the son of one of the movement's leaders, to russia for the first time in history. And the kremlin has signed agreements with Tehran that consolidate Iran's presence in Syria and its intention to jointly destroy ISIS. Since 2015, both countries have been members of the RSII coalition, or "4+1", consisting of russia, Syria, Iran, Iraq, and the Lebanese Hezbollah movement. This association has a joint information center in Baghdad to coordinate joint operations against ISIS.
It is worth noting that russia's support for Hamas and the recent hearty reception of the Palestinian delegation in moscow have not eased the tensions with ISIS-K. Contrary to reports in the russian media, the Afghan group has no sympathy for the Islamists from Gaza. The Sunni ISIS-K ridicules Hamas as a puppet of Shiite Iran and brands it as an apostate.
Confrontation in the Sahel and Mozambique
Several ISIS affiliates are now competing with the russians in two arenas hidden from international attention, Israeli Ynet News notes. The Boko Haram and ISIS-Sahel groups are fighting the Wagnerians in the African Sahel countries of Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso. Meanwhile, ISIS-West Africa is fighting russian mercenaries in Mozambique.
"The situation is similar to Afghanistan. russians go where the United States withdraws from. For example, after the withdrawal of American and French troops from Chad, Mali and Niger, russia offered these countries military assistance through Wagner PMC to fight radical Islam. This involvement has made russia a target of the Islamic State attacks as its forces resist the expansion of ISIS's caliphate in Africa," Ynet News describes the situation.
The retaliatory strike by ISIS against russia in Crocus City Hall near moscow has increased the group's ability to recruit African immigrants living in Europe. Recently, French President Emmanuel Macron said that the Afghan branch of the Islamic State has recently made "several attempts" to attack France. This could mean that ISIS is "knocking on Europe's door", and experts are particularly concerned about the 2024 Olympics in Paris.
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