The russians continue to withdraw from the western bank of the Dnieper River – ISW

What happened? The russian occupiers probably continue to transfer troops and military equipment across the Dnieper River in anticipation of Ukraine's offensive on Kherson.

Source. The report of analysts of the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), dated October 31.

Details. “Ukrainian military sources reported on October 30 that russian forces are preparing to move artillery units and weapons from the west bank of the Dnieper River for possible redeployment in other directions… russian forces are preparing to evacuate individual units and military equipment from the west bank and have collected watercraft to facilitate the evacuation,” the message reads.

In addition, on October 30, the occupiers started engineering works in Bilozerka and Chornobaivka.

“The fact that russian collaborators are preparing to defend Chornobaivka is particularly noteworthy, as Chornobaivka is the last settlement along the M14 highway north of Kherson city. The current frontline lies less than 20km northwest of Chornobaivka, and active efforts to bolster defense here indicate concern for an imminent Ukrainian advance. The simultaneous evacuation of military assets from the west bank and preparations for the defence of critical areas around Kherson city indicate serious anxiety over russian control of the west bank,” analysts report.

It is noted that russian officials have again changed their mind about the risk of destruction by Ukrainian forces of the dam of the Kakhovka HPP, ordering evacuation from areas that may be flooded.

“There is no scenario in which Ukraine would benefit from destroying the dam, and this rhetoric is likely meant to speed evacuations and provide informational cover for russian withdrawals from the west bank,” analysts point out.

In particular, Vladimir Saldo, the Head of the Kherson occupation administration announced on October 31 that his administration is expanding the evacuation zone by 15km from the Dnieper River given that a “massive missile attack on the Kakhovka HPP dam, will cause massive flooding and destruction of civilian infrastructure.” 

At the same time, Saldo previously claimed that it would be “practically impossible” to destroy the dam and that even in case of a breach, the water level of the Dnieper River would only rise 2 meters.

In addition, the ISW adds that the occupiers “continue to create poor conditions in occupied parts of Kherson Oblast, which likely drives local inhabitants to evacuate.”