Estonian intelligence: Russia's ability to defend its borders with NATO countries has fallen dramatically
Recovery will take about four years, according to intelligence
The war in Ukraine has reduced Russia's defense capabilities on the border with NATO's Baltic states for many years to come, according to the annual report "International Security and Estonia 2023" by the Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service (EFIS).
Details. Estonian intelligence believes that it will take up to four years to restore the combat capability of Russian units deployed near the borders of the Baltic countries. Russia considers the Baltic states to be the most vulnerable part of NATO, which would make them the center of military pressure in the event of a conflict between NATO and Russia. Therefore, Russia is likely to prioritize the restoration of its military capabilities, weakened by the war in Ukraine, directly near the Estonian border, the report says.
Russian units responsible for "covering the Estonian direction," including the 76th Airborne Division and units of the 6th Army, have been involved in the war in Ukraine since the invasion and have suffered heavy losses, EFIS explains. The mobilization, in turn, affected the Pskov and Leningrad regions bordering Estonia. When restoring military capabilities in this area, Russia may face a shortage of competent instructors to train new soldiers, the report says.
At the same time, Russia still has enough forces to exert military pressure on the region, EFIS notes. If Russia achieves its goals in Ukraine, the likelihood of a military conflict with NATO will increase, the intelligence service believes. The EFIS emphasizes that the real goals of the Russian invasion have not changed since the beginning of the war: it is "the subjugation of Ukraine" and, as a result, a change in the security architecture in Europe.
The Kremlin believes that time is on its side and plans to further mobilize people and industrial resources. The shelling of civilian infrastructure aimed at breaking the will of Ukrainians to resist will also continue, Estonian intelligence predicts.
Background. As reported, Estonia intends to transfer cluster munitions to Ukraine, but it will need Germany's permission to re-export them.
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