ISW: Lukashenko's direct influence on stopping the coup in russia is humiliating for putin

The fact that Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko played a direct role in halting the military advance on moscow is humiliating for russian President vladimir putin, according to a report of the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

The analysts suggest that this situation provided Lukashenko with certain advantages. He used his own "existing channels" to ascertain the situation on the ground and negotiate with the leader of the private military company Wagner, Yevgeny Prigozhin.

The Institute points out that Lukashenko's access to such channels and successful negotiations with Prigozhin suggest that he has some influence over the Wagner group leader, which he used for de-escalation of the situation.

The ISW suspects that Lukashenko will try to use the de-escalation of the armed uprising to achieve his goals, such as postponing the formalisation of the union state of russia and Belarus or preventing putin from using Belarusian forces in Ukraine.

"The kremlin now faces a deeply unstable equilibrium. The Lukashenko-negotiated deal is a short-term fix, not a long-term solution, and Prigozhin’s rebellion exposed severe weaknesses in the kremlin and russian MoD," the Institute's report states.

It also noted that "suggestions that Prigozhin’s rebellion, the kremlin’s response, and Lukashenko’s mediation were all staged by the kremlin are absurd."

The ISW emphasises that this coup revealed the weakness of russian security structures and demonstrated putin's inability to timely use forces to fend off internal threats, further undermining his power monopoly. "Prigozhin’s rapid drive towards moscow ridiculed much of the russian regular forces – and highlighted to any and all security figures, state-owned enterprises, and other key figures in the russian government that private military forces separate from the central state can achieve impressive results. Wagner’s drive also showcased the degradation of russia’s military reserves, which are almost entirely committed to fighting in Ukraine," the Institute analyses the situation.

They also highlight that the kremlin's apparent surprise at Prigozhin's actions speaks poorly of russian internal intelligence. Although Prigozhin had consistently escalated his rhetoric against the Ministry of Defence even before the coup, putin still failed to mitigate this risk.

"We... do not foresee… an imminent collapse of the russian government... Nonetheless, Prigozhin’s rebellion and the resolution of the events of June 23 and 24 – though not necessarily the Prigozhin/kremlin struggle writ large – will likely substantially damage putin’s government and the russian war effort in Ukraine," the Institute summarises.